Could Ramaphosa lose ANC leadership?

When we arrived at the Nasrec accreditation centre on Thursday morning, Cyril Ramaphosa looked locked-in for a second term as ANC president.

Based on the ANC nomination process, the president came into this conference with the support of roughly 63% of ANC branches. He also had the nomination of eight of the ANC’s provinces and two of the party’s three leagues. Going up against a rather weak candidate in Zweli Mkhize, surely the presidency race was a done deal?

Yet here we are on Saturday afternoon and rumours are rife that the presidential race is still very much alive. How can that be?

No, it’s not the Phala-Phala factor. It is, though, the usual horse-trading for positions between the provinces that can always disrupt the above-the-water numbers at an ANC national elective conference.

Ramaphosa’s main difficulty is in who his side backs for the other top six (or seven) positions, and the fallout from those would-be allies of his that are disgruntled by the choices that he makes in that process.

So, to understand the threat posed to Ramaphosa, we need to look at the dynamics at play in some of the other big races.

Deputy president

One way or the other, Ramaphosa’s main opponent in this conference has been regarded as the wave of support brewing from Paul Mashatile’s forces.

The current treasurer general (and acting secretary general) came into this conference with roughly 59% of branch support for the position of deputy president — a number that is even stronger on the basis of one of the two models we use for “crunching the numbers” in the ANC’s complex electoral college — namely, the provincial simulation (in which we assume that all delegates in a province vote for the nominee that won their provincial nomination).

Ramaphosa’s “slate” for the position was split between Eastern Cape provincial chair, Oscar Mabuyane and Justice Minister Ronald Lamola. The sensible electoral strategy would be for one of these candidates to drop out and give their support to the other. In return, sources suggest that the treasurer general position (one that is less attractive but far more winnable) is being offered as a compromise to either of these two men pulling out of the “DP” race.

But neither wants to budge yet, and the loser may threaten to pull the support of their home province in the presidency race (Mabuyane’s 684 branch votes in Eastern Cape, or 390 in Lamola’s Mpumalanga) in another direction.

Chairperson

The chairperson race is also shaping up to be a critical one that will have significant consequences for the balance of power for this entire conference. Again, the Ramaphosa side’s vote is split, this time between his main enforcer, Gwede Mantashe, and arguably the most promising member of the ANC’s younger generation, deputy finance minister David Masondo.

Mantashe’s nomination numbers were almost double the strength of Masondo’s. The energy minister has shown to be an indispensable ally to Ramaphosa over the past two weeks, as he fights for his political life in the face of complaints from some quarters that he has been a tad too bruising in his muscular defence of the president since the flawed Phala-Phala report dropped on 30 November. 

I get the sense that Masondo will shortly drop out of this race, to the regret of reformers inside the ANC who want to see a generational shift at this conference. But the complication only starts there.

The opponent to the Ramaphosa slate in this position is influential Limpopo power-broker Stan Mathabatha. By my rather complicated mathematical simulation (the details of which I will spare you), I have Mathabatha just fractionally over the 50% mark in this race.

In other words, it’s neck-and-neck between Mathabatha and Mantashe. Although not seen as the most reliable character, Mathabatha is not RET (radical economic transformation faction) — he is more middle ground. So, Mathabatha could still be an acceptable compromise for the Ramaphosa slate.

And Mathabatha is a powerful player at this conference. His Limpopo province has risen to the third-largest ANC province with 613 delegates — more than the likes of Gauteng, Mpumalanga and the North West. Currently, Limpopo is backing the president, but if they turn, this conference could spin upside down. But to back Mathabatha means ditching Mantashe, something that the president’s people simply cannot do.

Would the whole of Limpopo turn to Mkhize if Ramaphosa’s slate continues to back Mantashe? Doubtful. But going into this conference, it was Limpopo’s support that was probably the most reassuring to Ramaphosa. And if that is now up in the air, you can understand why “Camp Ramaphosa” would be a little less bullish.

Secretary general

I don’t think this race has as large a bearing on the presidency race — although that could change — but it’s still a complicated one.

This is another three-horse-race between Ramaphosa’s preferred candidate, Fikile Mbalula, the more middle-ground Mbumiseni Ntuli (although more CR-aligned) and RET candidate, Phumulo Masualle.

Ntuli is the front-runner from the branch nominations, but Ramaphosa’s camp is still not giving up on Mbalula —– bringing Masualle into the game. If the “renewal” votes are split, and Masualle wins, it would be akin to the moment when Ace Magashule narrowly won the secretary-general’s position five years ago.

Treasurer general

There are three weak candidates nominated for this position and the Mashatile/RET vote is split between Pule Mabe and the more militant RET nominee, Mwandile Masina (although Mashatile and RET are not fully aligned).

The ‘CR’ slate nominee is Benjani Chauke, but his game might be up due to his implication in the Phala-Phala report.

Because the opposition vote to Ramaphosa for this position is split, and neither Mabe or Masina seem keen on backing down, there may be an open goal here for a Ramaphosa-aligned candidate to win the nomination from the floor.

This could be used as a soft-landing for Mabuyane or Lamola, for example, but neither seems particularly keen on this crucial but not particularly sought-after position.

Deputy secretary general

Nomvula Mokonyane has a strong lead for this one over Febe Potgieter — one of the few really good and competent people in the engine room of the ANC. The ANC are considering adding a second DSG position — mainly as an attempt to get more women elected among the top officials. This could also be used in the bargaining.

What does it all mean?

This thing is still up in the air. The next open session at Nasrec is the “additional nominations” sitting where we will hear whether there are any nominations from the floor that meet the 25% threshold for validity. There is a strong sense that some will have a go at this, even though it has never happened before — maybe even Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma, who might take a run at one of the top two positions.

Dlamini Zuma is not a firm ally of Mashatile, and Ramaphosa’s camp may, ironically, back such a nomination so that she might split the Mashatile vote.

Crucially, we should also hear in this session if any of the nominated candidates have dropped out of any of the races (the likes of Masondo, Mabuyane or Lamola). This will bring far more clarity to a confusing conference picture.

Who will win? Well, I have been crunching the numbers since the start of the ANC nominations process several weeks ago, and have been on the ground at Nasrec talking to sources since day one, but because of the collapse of many ANC cultural traditions — especially clear slates — the situation is very fluid, and logic of the numbers from the branch nomination and delegation process could be upset by the horse-trading that is going on right now. 

I still get the sense that Ramaphosa is on top. Mainly because I would still be shocked if Limpopo makes such a dramatic late U-turn, especially en-masse. But with KZN lost to RET and parts of Gauteng set to oppose Ramaphosa, the president can ill afford to lose the support of the weighty Limpopo province. If a large part of Limpopo shifts, as well as significant chunks of the Eastern Cape or Mpumalanga (due to the Mabuyane/Lamola tussle), then Mkhize may yet have a path to the presidency.

I would still bet on Cyril but it could be closer than first looked, and he may well have to settle for an even-more compromised top six and NEC than after 2017. Nevertheless, for the main race, the president is sweating far more than he was this time last week.

Mike Law is Senior Researcher at the Paternoster Group: African Political Insight. 

The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Mail & Guardian.

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