Waiting: The fate of David Mabuza (centre), Paul Mashatile (right) rests in the hands of President Cyril Ramaphosa. (Delwyn Verasamy/M&G)
President Cyril Ramaphosa’’s closest advisers are urging him to reshuffle his cabinet before he delivers the State of the Nation address on 9 February, to signal his control of the state — and the governing party.
While some of his allies, including new ANC secretary general Fikile Mbalula, have been agitating for an early reshuffle, the president will probably only do so once party and government processes have been completed, which is likely to take until early February.
Ramaphosa needs to fill the vacancies created by Mbalula’s move full time to the ANC headquarters in Luthuli House and the departure of the public service and administration minister, Ayanda Dlodlo, to the World Bank last April.
Seven sitting cabinet members — among them Public Enterprises Minister Pravin Gordhan and Sports, Arts and Culture Minister Nathi Mthethwa — failed to make it to the ANC’s national executive committee (NEC) at the party’s national conference last month and are likely to make way for ministers drawn from the new leadership.
The conference decision to move electricity utility Eskom to the energy ministry and other state-owned entities to their line departments is likely to mean the end of public enterprises as a ministry, requiring a further reconfiguration of the cabinet.
But even if Ramaphosa does reshuffle early next month, ANC deputy president Paul Mashatile may have to wait even longer before making his move to the Union Buildings because the ANC’s parliamentary list cannot be changed until March.
While David Mabuza is still sitting deputy president of the country, Mashatile’s move into the post is a fait accompli because his victory over Oscar Mabuyane and Ronald Lamola in the tussle for the party deputy presidency guarantees him the job.
Speaking on the sidelines of a wreath-laying ceremony ahead of the ANC’s 8 January celebrations in Mangaung, Mashatile said he was ready to move to government.
“For now I have been elected as the deputy president of the ANC and I work at Luthuli House. If I get invited to government at some point, I will join them,” he said.
But Mashatile, the immediate former ANC treasurer general and acting secretary general and deputy secretary general, is not a member of parliament, a requirement for being appointed to cabinet.
Mashatile is also not on the ANC’s parliamentary list from the 2019 national elections, so the party does not have the option at this point of asking a sitting MP to resign to make space for Mashatile in that manner.
Ramaphosa can, by law, appoint two cabinet ministers who are not MPs, but those slots are occupied by two of his closest allies — Minister in the Presidency Mondli Gungubele and Trade, Industry and Competiton Minister Ebrahim Patel.
But the ANC can appeal to the secretary of the National Assembly to reopen its list earlier, should it be able to claim exceptional circumstances such as seats suddenly becoming vacant.
While the seats should theoretically go to members whose names are at the top of the list, the ANC could argue that the conference reconfigured the party’s internal rankings, and with it the standing of those who it had previously nominated to go to parliament.
At the time of writing there was no indication that the ruling party had begun discussions with parliament on changing its lists, or that any MPs were about to resign.
One of Mashatile’s lobbyists said that at this point, matters were in Ramaphosa’s hands.
“It is an administrative issue within a regulatory framework, but obviously it is the prerogative of the president,” they said.
Mabuza, who was the kingmaker in the ANC’s 2017 elective conference, will have to be recalled to make way for Mashatile.
Mabuza failed to make it onto the ballot for the party deputy presidency this time around, having lost the support of his home province, Mpumalanga, so Ramaphosa has little to lose in recalling him to accommodate Mashatile.
Mabuza’s spokesperson, Matshepo Seedat, declined to comment on his future.
“Kindly refer your query to the office of the president. As you are aware the deputy president was appointed to the position in government,” Seedat said.
ANC sources said that there had been no discussion about a reshuffle by the newly elected top seven, which will only meet next week.
The NEC is understood to be holding an induction meeting in the last week of January, after which a new national working committee (NWC) would have to be selected.
Discussions about the future configuration of the cabinet — and who gets to occupy which posts — are likely to take place at this point, with the NEC set to hold a lekgotla at which it will hammer out the future of the state-owned entities and other issues.
Nathi Mthethwa’s future also hangs in the balance. (Sandile Ndlovu)
Ramaphosa — who will lead the South African delegation to the World Economic Forum in Davos from Monday, 16 January — is also scheduled to convene another government lekgotla before making any cabinet changes.
Reliable sources say Lamola will not be among those culled from the cabinet, although he disobliged Ramaphosa by refusing to withdraw as a candidate for the deputy presidency of the ANC at the party’s elective conference in December.
His decision split the votes of Ramaphosa’s supporters between himself and Mabuyane, paving the way for Mashatile to be elected to the position.
Lamola wishes to remain justice minister, sources have suggested, having settled into the portfolio. He had moreover hoped to suggest, if he had secured the deputy presidency of the party and eventually the country, that the portfolio be moved into that office.
It is still not clear whether Ramaphosa will remove Cooperative Governance and Traditional Affairs Minister Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma — who voted for his impeachment in parliament along with several MPs — from his cabinet.
Like Mabuza, Dlamini Zuma did not make the ballot ahead of the Nasrec conference, failing to secure the support of KwaZulu-Natal, which instead backed Zweli Mkhize, and has lost the leverage she retained after 2017.
It is all but guaranteed that Mineral Resources and Energy Minister Gwede Mantashe will survive the reshuffle, having made himself indispensable when Ramaphosa was living through his darkest political hours after the independent panel chaired by retired chief justice Sandile Ngcobo recommended that he be subjected to an impeachment inquiry over the Phala Phala scandal.
But Mantashe has his own skeletons to contend with, in the form of the recommendation of the Zondo commission on state capture that he face prosecution for accepting free home security installations from Bosasa.
Ramaphosa arguably repaid a political favour when he failed to extend political cover to Andre de Ruyter, allowing his exit as Eskom chief executive. Mantashe has been vocal in his opinion that De Ruyter was not up to the job. How far Ramaphosa will indulge Mantashe is unclear.
In his 8 January speech, Ramaphosa said any member of the party accused of corruption must face the criminal justice system. “There will be no exceptions.”
Speaking on the sidelines of the ANC’s 8 January gathering, Mashatile said a decision on the reshuffle would be taken after the ANC’s NEC lekgotla later this month.
“We’re going to have the lekgotla of the NEC, finalise the plans. Once we are done, the president will then begin to look at where he must make the changes,” he said.
In a television interview on Monday, Ramaphosa said there would be a need to replace Mbalula because of his move to Luthuli House, and a “gap” in cabinet to fill with the departure of Dlodlo.
Ramaphosa said there was “a need to reconfigure the country’s national executive”.
“There is a need and it follows that there needs to be some reconfiguration as we have to replace this minister and that minister, but as I said earlier, let’s watch this space.”
Cabinet members who are out of the NEC
Naledi Pandor (international relations), Pravin Gordhan (public enterprises), Maite Nkoana-Mashabane (women, youth and persons with disabilities), Blade Nzimande (higher education), Nathi Mthethwa (sports, arts and culture), Ebrahim Patel (trade, industry and competition) and Thulas Nxesi (labour and employment).
Cabinet vacancies
Transport (Fikile Mbalula to Luthuli House), public service and administration (Ayanda Dlodlo to the World Bank)
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