EFF leader Julius Malema. (Photo by Gallo Images/Sharon Seretlo)
In certain circles, the thought of Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) leader Julius Malema getting anywhere near the presidency is spine-chilling.
Some economists have warned that if the ANC forms a coalition with the EFF it would finally pull South Africa off its axis — as the latter draws the governing party too far left. The Democratic Alliance (DA) has used the threat of this alliance to add some sheen to its otherwise unattractive offering.
A year ago, Peter Attard Montalto, of capital markets research consultancy Krutham, had this to say about the prospect: “Or there is an EFF/ANC coalition which would — to not put too fine a point on it — blow everything up, as the live rails of SA policy that have never really been touched, are touched.”
Montalto’s assessment wasn’t all negative, adding that this scenario could induce some positive change in the long run as the country clamours to recover from hitting a dramatic low.
Whatever your thoughts about the EFF’s ability to unleash this feared chaos after this year’s election, the party’s economic proposals shouldn’t be disregarded as the pie-in-the-sky promises of a radical force.
Notwithstanding the party’s focus on land, it puts jobs and ending load-shedding right at the top of its agenda in its recently-launched election manifesto — two topics any serious contender would make a priority. The theme of the party’s 2024 election manifesto is only a slight adjustment to its 2019 version, titled “Our land and jobs now”.
On the employment front, the EFF promises to create millions of jobs between 2024 and 2029.
The party intends on inducing this jobs windfall by building state capacity and through tariff-protected industrialisation. The interventions proposed in this section of the EFF’s manifesto repeat those contained in the 2019 iteration, including its commitment to establish various new state-owned companies and to ensure that a minimum of 80% of the goods and services procured by the state are produced domestically.
While it is more specific about the number of jobs certain measures stand to create, the 2024 manifesto does not include the party’s earlier promise to grow the economy by 6% in its first two years in office and 10% in the remaining three years. It’s an interesting omission given that the 6% promise is quite a memorable one.
The 2024 manifesto signals some changes to the EFF’s energy policy — which takes up far more space than it did in 2019.
Perhaps the most interesting difference between the 2019 and the 2024 manifestoes is that the latter document explicitly states that an EFF government would support the involvement of the private sector in electricity generation.
This slight deviation comes with the caveat that the EFF government would aim to control private sector participation to between 30% and 40% of new generation capacity “through a new transparent and corrupt-free procurement process that supports the ownership transfer to the majority of black people”.
The 2024 manifesto also doubles down on the EFF’s nuclear aspirations. While the earlier version does state the party’s intentions to build a new nuclear power station, the 2024 document gets into specifics.
According to the new manifesto the EFF’s nuclear power station will produce between 3 000 and 6 000 megawatts of electricity. For context, Koeberg’s capacity is about 1 900 megawatts and the ANC-led government has expressed its intention to add 2 500 megawatts to this.
Moreover, the EFF says the new power plant will be established through a 20-year build-operate-transfer contract — a scheme involving an initial concession to a private sector entity for a set period, after which control of the project is returned to the public sector.
The EFF has also significantly broadened its fiscal and monetary policy measures. A number of these are the same, outlining the party’s promises to buoy the public purse by cutting some of the benefits enjoyed by ministers and by clamping down on illicit financial flows.
Over and above these existing measures, the 2024 manifesto sets out the EFF’s intention to, among other things, establish a state-controlled credit rating agency, implement a sovereign debt restructuring programme and mandate the public disclosure of all conditions attached to loans given to the government.
In the 2024 document, the EFF also presses on with its plans to nationalise the South African Reserve Bank, a cause that has added to the party’s unpopularity in certain circles and which the ANC has also adopted — giving credence to the view that the incumbent government can be pulled to the left.
But the Reserve Bank example is telling in another way. It speaks to the fact that just because a political party such as the ANC talks left, it rarely actually walks left. It would be naive to believe that the EFF would be any different, especially considering its recent track record.
Indeed the EFF’s lack of ideological clarity — a symptom of the failure of its leaders to truly embody socialist ideals — makes it somewhat less scary than it has been made out to be, at least to those who seem to fear it the most. That said, given prevailing economic conditions, avoiding radical change shouldn’t give us comfort.