File photo by Waldo Swiegers/Getty Images.
The energy solutions presented by the three largest political parties during their election manifesto launches underscore a profound disconnect between government leaders and the power challenges facing South Africa, say energy experts.
The ANC, Democratic Alliance (DA) and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) at their manifesto launches in February, unveiled energy strategies to tackle the energy crisis.
But energy experts said that the strategies proposed by the parties may not alleviate the threat of load-shedding outlined in the country’s Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) 2023, which serves as the blueprint for future electricity generation.
The IRP 2023, released last year by the Department of Mineral Resources & Energy for public comment, projected ongoing load-shedding until 2027, with no expected improvement in Eskom’s coal-fired plant performance.
Energy expert Adil Nchabeleng said the political parties’ reliance on the private sector to address the country’s load-shedding crisis was concerning.
“It is foolish to think that the private sector on its own will lead and revive the economy as it is today, without the state taking a leading position in driving economic development and rapid economic transformation policies,” he said.
Nchabeleng said the ANC’s plan showed that it had not taken the advice of energy experts.
“The fact that the ANC was in power for 30 years and they could not put up a manifesto that talks about ending load-shedding and building up Eskom into a robust engine of the economy shows that the ANC has completely dropped the gauntlet because it is not listening to the input from energy experts, they are just doing what will keep them in power,” he said.
David Walwyn, professor of technology management at the University of Pretoria, said South Africa should focus on building up the capacity it receives from independent power producers rather than expecting to rely on gas and nuclear power it does not have.
Another expert, Tshepo Kgadima, said as long as politicians made decisions without the input of experts, the country would continue on a downward spiral economically.
“It is concerning that these politicians do not take expert advice regarding complex issues like the energy crisis, which is also evident in the energy blueprint, which talks about the energy mix, when experts know that without baseload—available energy at any given time—these options they are adding to the IRP are not going to save South Africa,” he said.
Kgadima added that the energy solutions proposed by the political parties are inadequate in tackling the challenges of load-shedding, which has severely damaged investor confidence.
The decrease in investment activity will exacerbate the limitations on economic growth opportunities and initiatives aimed at promoting job creation and generating income, Kgadima said.
“The lack of adequate solutions for the energy crisis will further push the parties away from their goal to solve the unemployment crisis,” he said.
The country’s energy crisis has worsened its existing economic challenges, prompting ratings agencies, the International Monetary Fund and the South African Reserve Bank to flag load-shedding as a significant barrier to economic recovery.
In its manifesto document, the ANC does not promise to end load-shedding but pledges to invest in energy infrastructure, roads and railways, which it argues is critical for inclusive economic growth.
ANC leader Cyril Ramaphosa said the party would develop gas, nuclear, and hydropower projects to boost energy generation.
Ramaphosa also pledged to prioritise investment in expanding the transmission grid to facilitate more energy supply, including renewable sources.
Expanding the energy grid capacity is important for the country to enable it to connect new renewable energy. The shortage of grid capacity is a major hurdle to ending load-shedding.
The DA has promised to fast-pace Eskom’s unbundling process into generation, transmission and distribution, adding that the solution to South Africa’s electricity crisis must come from increased power generation outside of Eskom.
DA leader John Steenhuises said a multiplicity of private suppliers will provide competition, thereby improving service, increasing supply and lowering energy prices.
The EFF said they will end load-shedding within six months of being in power by stopping Eskom’s plan to decommission seven coal-fired power stations, which are expected to be closed by 2032.
The party said it would work with China to restore South Africa’s coal power stations and get Russia to help build a nuclear power plant.
EFF leader Julius Malema said if voted into power, the party’s government “will ensure the security of electricity supply for at least the next 20 years, emulating successful models like that of China, to foster national sovereignty and sustainable economic growth”.
Nchabeleng said that only the EFF’s plan had the potential of succeeding as it provided solutions and timelines as to when the crisis would be fixed.
“The EFF’s model works because ending load-shedding is possible. We only need 6 000 MW in capacity within Eskom, which can relieve the current levels of load-shedding. The EFF has unfortunately beat everyone in this game in respect of solving the energy crisis,” he said.