President Cyril Ramaphosa is jetting off for his meeting with US President Donald Trump. Photo: Minasse Wondimu Hailu/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images
South African President Cyril Ramaphosa is set to meet US President Donald Trump this week. Having seen what happened with Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, one thing is clear — fact-checking Trump is not useful.
Trump, in any case, has access to any facts he needs; if he chooses to process them in a creative way, telling him he is wrong is not a winning tactic.
What Ramaphosa really needs to do is present Trump with something he desires. South Africa doesn’t have spare $400 million flying palaces to offer, so what do we have?
The whole kerfuffle around the Afrikaners claiming to be “refugees” has taken up a lot of head space. Clearly, there is no genocide going on in South Africa. Anyone who studies the stats or who knows the reality on the ground can tell you that being black and poor makes you by far the most at risk of violent crime. If anyone is at risk because of their identity, it is foreigners.
Many believe that the real issue is South Africa’s 2024 International Court of Justice genocide case against Israel — and this is payback.
But the Trump regime is in an unsustainable position with contradictory foreign policy directions. Trump’s recent trip to the Middle East took in Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia — and skipped Israel. None of these countries favours destruction of Gaza and driving all its surviving inhabitants out.
So, what can Ramaphosa offer Trump?
He was a lead negotiator in the talks that ended apartheid. He knows how to frame issues in the language of the other side and to win trust.
South Africa is also uniquely positioned relative to the sides of the Israel-Palestine conflict. We have a vocal Jewish community with strong voices for and against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, so he has access to those who know the language of that side.
We also have a diverse Islamic community, members of which have played a direct role in humanitarian aid in Gaza — Gift of the Givers. So, he has access to the language of that side too.
The biggest thing missing in the Israel-Palestine conflict is someone who can talk to both sides and who can help them to find common ground. Whether Ramaphosa can do that is untested but he is more qualified than most. If he could play a significant role in persuading the apartheid regime to give up power, he must have a rare skill.
Would Trump buy this? Maybe. Maybe not. But it is an easier sell than fact-checking him on his definition of “refugees” and “genocide”.
It is certainly a better idea than offering to mediate between Russia and Ukraine, as Ramaphosa has before. Vladimir Putin is not someone who looks for common ground and there is no civil society to stand up to him, even if societal support for his war shifted decisively against him.
In Israel, it is different. Netanyahu’s hold on power is far more tenuous. There are many who believe he wants endless war to put the threat of a criminal trial on hold. Even if Netanyahu himself and his hardline cabinet resist peace efforts, they do not have a unified or cowed society behind them.
What else could Ramaphosa offer?
Clearly the Afrikaners being exported aren’t refugees and refugee advocates are rightly angry that they are being given a free pass when others — particularly Afghans who are at risk for having worked for the US occupation — are being threatened with being sent home. In international law, refugees are defined by the 1951 Refugee Convention as people in imminent danger of being killed or severely injured because of their identity or proximity to war.
A core principle is that no one should be sent back to a country where they face a serious threat to their life or freedom; this principle is called non-refoulement. The convention was adopted in large part in response to the shiploads of Jewish refugees from Nazism who were turned back to their deaths — although work on it started between the two world wars, arising from World War I refugees.
A big misconception about refugees is lumping them in with other migrants. Someone fleeing lack of economic opportunity — even if it is so severe that they risk starvation — is not a refugee, but an economic migrant, and they have no protection under the convention. A large fraction of economic migrants — the majority in some countries — arrive by regular means and overstay their visas.
Another big misconception is that people who arrive by irregular means such as unauthorised border crossings or leaky boats are “queue-jumpers”. There is no orderly queue. People fleeing imminent danger don’t sit at home filling in forms and waiting for a police clearance (as the Afrikaners did). Anyone who has a reasonable claim to be a refugee is an asylum seeker, and is entitled to have their claim evaluated; they should only be sent home if the claim is not valid.
Ramaphosa could offer to take on any of those who have been properly vetted if the US provides reasonable compensation for the costs of rehousing them and integrating them into society. That would put South Africa on the right side of history and absolve the Trump regime of being accused of sending deserving claimants to refugee status home to their deaths.
So, win-win.
Ramaphosa uses his unique skills and positioning to try to find common ground between Israel and Palestine and relieves Trump of refugees he doesn’t want. It’s not as flashy as a flying palace but it could work.
Philip Machanick is an emeritus associate professor of computer science at Rhodes University. https://www.facebook.com/MakanaCitizensFront