Ticad 9: The post-conference balance sheet

“I want to laugh, cry, and sweat together with the people of Africa,” Japan’s prime minister, Shigeru Ishiba, said last week at the closing ceremony of the 9th Tokyo International Conference on African Development (Ticad) held in Yokohama. He added, “We will continue to cooperate, with the understanding that Japan has much to learn from Africa, and we will build the future together.”  This was a moving statement.

Ticad was inaugurated in 1993 as an Africa-Japan high-level forum primarily for consultations on African development. It is older than Brics. It is also believed to be an inspirational source for China’s Forum on China-Africa Cooperation, which started in 2000, and many other “One-Plus-Africa Summitry” diplomacies. Yet Ticad receives relatively little international coverage, even when it attracts more African leaders, as it did in 2008 and 2019. Last week’s conference was attended by 34 African leaders.

The first four Ticad were held every five years since 1993. It became a triennial event in 2013. And in 2016 and 2022, Ticad 6 and Ticad 8 were held in Kenya and Tunisia, respectively. Former prime minister Kishida served as the co-chair of the Ticad 9 meeting last week, along with Ishiba.

The first thing to note about Ticad 9 is that it signified Japan’s doubling down on its desire to work with Africa in a mutually beneficial relationship. It was also a reflection of its continuing commitment to multilateralism, free trade and the rule of law. In all of these areas, the approach the current United States administration has taken is different. In a sense, the global environment today harkens back to 1993. Then, like now, the West was looking away from Africa (in the wake of the end of the Cold War). Then, like now, Japan took a major initiative (by launching Ticad). And then, like now, it went its own way in its external relations.  

But Africa’s economy has also grown in the past three decades. According to the World Bank, sub-Saharan African GDP was about $1500 in 2024, which is about 2.3 times higher than it was 30 years ago. In addition, the UN has predicted that the region’s economy will grow by about 4 % in 2025, surpassing the global economic growth rate projected to be only 2.8%. This means that there is a growing interest in Africa among the emerging powers, too. Japan, therefore, realises that it cannot afford to become a mere spectator.

Throughout Ticad 9, the Japanese print and electronic media, as well as Japanese leaders, repeatedly pointed out about Africa’s demographic strength: that 70% of Africa’s population is below the age of 30, that the average age of an African is 19 years (the average age of a Japanese is 50 years), that Africa is the youngest continent, and that, by 2050, according to World Population Prospects 2024, one in every four humans walking our planet will be an African. In short, Africa has the youngest and fastest-growing population, the only continent in which the population will continue to grow throughout the 21st century. This is an encouraging set of statistics, from Africa’s vantage point, even if it is less appreciated in Africa itself.  

Furthermore, it has been noted that Africa has abundant natural resources, including oil, natural gas, gold, diamonds and rare metals used in smartphones. For these reasons, Japan sees Africa as a land of great promise.

The media has also not glossed over the fact that Africa faces a set of outstanding challenges in the coming years. One is to provide employment opportunities for its expanding youth population. And, second, there is the seemingly chronic political instability that bedevils a significant portion of the continent. But neither of these challenges is insurmountable.

In any case, the number of offices in Africa of Japanese companies has increased from 562 in 2011 to 948 in 2023, according to Japan’s ministry of foreign affairs. But this number can be misleading. The fact is that Japan’s foreign direct investment (FDI) in 2023 was far smaller compared not only to India but even to Singapore. In the same period, the Netherlands, France, the US, the United Kingdom and China remained the top five countries in terms of the size of FDI in Africa. And Japan’s exports to Africa in 2024 stood only at $8.5 billion (compared to China’s $178 billion in the same period).

The reasons for Japan’s low level of involvement in Africa’s economy are complex. They include, first, the high risk-averseness of Japanese companies. There is a widespread perception of political instability in Africa (with some justification). As it was clearly stated in the Yokohama Declaration released at the end of Ticad 9: “[Political] instability undermines economic prospects, negatively impacts human development and depletes natural, physical and financial resources, increases perceived risks, and places a heavier burden on public finances.” In other words, Africa should put its house in order. We should not entertain the idea that Africa may be caught in a catch-22 such that the prospect of peace would not improve until economic prosperity is achieved, and, in turn, the latter is impossible if the former is not already in place.  

There is also another less appreciated factor that hinders Japan’s substantive economic presence in Africa: the low level of people-to-people interactions between Africans and the Japanese. Take, for instance, the foreign residents in Japan. As of December 2024, they numbered 3.8 million, according to data from Japan’s Immigration Services Agency. Out of this, only 23,000 were from the entire continent of Africa. With even fewer Japanese residing in Africa, there is virtually no opportunity for cross-cultural exchanges. Mutual ignorance tends to perpetuate and reinforce itself.

For now, Japan is realising that it cannot afford to lock itself out of the abundant natural resources and potentially huge African market. By using the Ticad forum, the Japanese government is seeking to encourage its companies to think strategically and start to trade with and invest in Africa more than they have done so far. (US President Donald Trump’s tariff makes such a move all the more urgent and critical from the point of view of Japan’s policymakers.)

Japan has the challenge of a shrinking and aging population. Africa has the challenge of an expanding population with increasing youth unemployment. This means that what seemed like a challenge when seen separately could be transformed collectively into an opportunity for both sides. After all, this is what such words of wisdom as “ubuntu” (South Africa), “harambe” (East Africa) and “medemer” (Ethiopia) are all about. In this vein, Japan is paying greater attention to Africa’s human resource development as a means of vitalizing Africa-Japan economic relations.

Ishiba, too, probably had this in mind when he said on the eve of Ticad 9 that “I would like to discuss how to connect Africa’s human and material resources to Japan’s growth and global prosperity, in a way that benefits both Japan and Africa.” Evidently, the emphasis in Japan’s economic diplomacy in Africa is changing.

The emphasis of Ticad 9 was on trade with and investment in Africa, unlike the development assistance that had dominated the Ticad agenda in its early years. The shift is also reflective of the global decline in official development assistance. Japan thus seeks to encourage its private companies to take some risk to catch up with their counterparts from the other parts of the world and invest in Africa. The Foreign Direct Investment Africa received in 2024 was about $97 billion, according to the data from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. That is not an insubstantial amount.

Also proposed by Japan at the Ticad 9 was the “Indian Ocean-Africa Economic Belt Initiative”— a scheme to develop the area extending from India to the Middle East and Africa as a new economic zone. Incidentally, this idea echoes Afrabia, a concept that was coined in 1992 and promoted by the Kenyan scholar Ali Mazrui. According to Mazrui, “while the idea of Afrabia acknowledges that Africa and the Arab world are interconnected [before they were literally disconnected at Suez by Europeans in the middle of the 19th century], it also suggests that these two regions, Africa and the Middle East, are historically evolving toward becoming one entity.” Will the Japanese plan of the “Economic Belt Initiative” lead to the fulfillment of Mazrui’s dream of the reintegration of Africans and the Arabs? We will see.

Let me end on a lighter note. Yoshihiro Mori, the prime minister of Japan from 2000 to 2001, said shortly after visiting Africa: “I definitely wanted to stand on the soil of the African continent and express directly to the African people the firm determination of the Japanese people to open our hearts along with them, to sweat and expend all our might to aid in the process of Africa overcoming its difficulties and building a bright future.” Mori was responding to a question as to why he visited Africa in January 2001, becoming the first sitting prime minister of Japan to do so. By a curious destiny, Mori was just like Ishiba, in my view, in that they are both very Africa-friendly. Mori was unpopular in opinion polls at the time, and so is Ishiba right now. Mori had to resign about three months after returning from Africa. Ishiba may also need to do so — soon. But the relationship between Africa and Japan endures.

Seifudein Adem is a visiting professor in the Institute for Advanced Research and Education, Doshisha University, Kyoto, Japan.