AI-driven: New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani provides one of the clearest examples of how digital mobilisation and targeted online engagement can outweigh traditional displays of political strength. Photo: Supplied
South Africa’s 2026 local government elections may well be remembered as the country’s first truly artificial intelligence election.
Many may have said this in 2024. For instance, in my chapter, ‘AI, Governance and Public Policy: Examining the 2024 South African Elections’, published in the book Designing Artificial Intelligence for Public Policy and Governance in Africa, edited by Gedion Onyango,
I argued that the 2024 national elections introduced South Africans to the disruptive potential of generative AI, deepfakes, algorithmic persuasion and digital disinformation.
If this is the case, then the 2026 elections are likely to witness these technologies being deployed on a far larger scale.
Political parties, civil society organisations, regulators and citizens should prepare for a dramatically altered electoral terrain, where political competition increasingly takes place not in stadiums, community halls or door-to-door campaigns but on smartphones, algorithms and digital platforms.
The central question is no longer whether AI will influence elections. It already has. The more pressing question is how profoundly it will reshape political mobilisation, voter behaviour and democratic participation.
One of the most intriguing questions emerging from the AI revolution is whether the days of big political rallies and traditional door-to-door campaigns are coming to an end.
Every South African will be familiar with the reality that local political parties traditionally measured their strength through physical mobilisation. We have become accustomed to massive rallies that serve not only as campaign events but also as demonstrations of organisational capacity and political legitimacy.
Historically, some parties have equated packed stadiums with electoral strength only to discover on election day, to their dismay, that large crowds do not translate into votes at the ballot box. Door-to-door campaigns have always been regarded as the gold standard of voter engagement.
But AI-driven campaigning is changing the political calculus.
Today, political parties can identify undecided voters with remarkable precision, predict voter behaviour using data analytics and deliver personalised messages directly to individuals through social media platforms and messaging applications.
We have witnessed this phenomenon in many democracies. The recent success of Zohran Mamdani in New York perhaps provides one of the clearest examples of how digital mobilisation and targeted online engagement can outweigh traditional displays of political strength.
Instead of spending millions transporting supporters to stadiums, parties can potentially reach millions of voters through targeted digital campaigns at a fraction of the cost.
This does not necessarily mean that physical campaigning will disappear. Politics remains fundamentally human. Voters still value personal interaction, community engagement and visible leadership.
However, AI is likely to transform traditional campaigning from the primary mode of voter mobilisation into one component of a broader hybrid strategy, combining physical and digital engagement.
The political party that masters both worlds may hold a decisive advantage.The implications for traditional media are equally profound.
Historically, newspapers, radio and television served as gatekeepers of political information. Editors determined which issues deserved attention and journalists mediated public debate through professional standards and verification processes.
AI is fundamentally altering this relationship.
Political actors can now bypass traditional media institutions and communicate directly with voters. AI-generated content can be produced rapidly, cheaply and at unprecedented scale. Synthetic videos, automated social media posts and personalised political messaging enable parties to create their own information ecosystem, independent of journalistic scrutiny.
This poses significant challenges for commercial media organisations already struggling with declining revenues and audience fragmentation.
The danger is not simply that traditional media may lose influence. The greater risk is that society loses trusted intermediaries capable of verifying information and distinguishing fact from fiction.
As witnessed during the 2024 elections, concerns emerged around deepfakes, manipulated videos and AI-generated misinformation. In 2026, these technologies will be more sophisticated, more accessible and more difficult to detect. Newsrooms increasingly find themselves competing against machines capable of producing vast quantities of convincing political content in real time.
The implications for democratic discourse are equally significant. If citizens can no longer distinguish between authentic and fabricated information, trust in institutions, elections and democratic processes may be undermined.
The likely effect of AI on the 2026 local government elections extends beyond misinformation.
AI has almost certainly transformed voter targeting, campaign strategy and political communication. Political parties increasingly rely on predictive analytics to identify persuadable voters, optimise campaign resources and tailor messages to specific demographic groups.
This raises important ethical questions.
How much personal data should political parties be permitted to collect and analyse?
Should voters be informed when they are being targeted by AI-generated political content?
What safeguards exist to prevent manipulation of vulnerable populations?
The lessons of the Cambridge Analytica scandal demonstrated that data-driven political campaigning can fundamentally alter electoral dynamics. South Africa cannot assume it is immune to similar risks.
This challenge is particularly acute because local government elections are often characterised by lower voter turnout, weaker media coverage and limited public scrutiny compared with national elections. These conditions create fertile ground for digital manipulation and coordinated influence operations.Perhaps the most contentious question concerns the possibility of external influence.
South Africa occupies a unique geopolitical position. Its membership of Brics, non-aligned foreign policy posture, International Court of Justice (ICJ) case against Israel and increasing strategic importance place it at the centre of global power competition. During the 2024 elections, concerns were raised about foreign-linked disinformation campaigns and coordinated online influence operations.
Unlike traditional forms of intervention, digital influence campaigns can be conducted remotely, anonymously and at relatively low cost. Foreign actors no longer require a physical presence. They require only access to digital platforms, sophisticated AI tools and a basic understanding of local political dynamics.
The experience of elections in the United States, France, Kenya and elsewhere demonstrates that cyber-enabled influence operations have become a recurring feature of contemporary politics.
South Africa should therefore assume that the 2026 elections will attract interests from both domestic and international actors seeking to shape public opinion.
The appropriate response is not panic but preparedness. Political parties themselves have much to learn from the experience of 2024.
First, they must invest in AI literacy and digital capabilities. Many South African political organisations continue to operate with campaign models designed for a pre-digital era. Future electoral success is increasingly dependent on the ability to understand and utilise data responsibly.
Second, parties must develop ethical frameworks governing their use of AI technologies. Winning elections cannot come at the expense of democratic integrity. The temptation to deploy misleading content or exploit algorithmic vulnerabilities must be resisted.
Third, political organisations should prioritise transparency. Voters have a right to know when they are engaging with AI-generated content and how their data is being used.
Finally, collaboration between political parties, civil society, regulators and technology companies is essential. Electoral integrity cannot be protected by a single actor.
The 2026 local government elections will not simply determine who governs municipalities. They will also provide an important test of South Africa’s ability to navigate the opportunities and dangers of the AI age.
Mandla J. Radebe is a professor of strategic communication at the University of Johannesburg and the editor of the book The Public Sector Communication in the Digital Age (UJ Press). He writes in his personal capacity.