Former president Peter Mutharika
Malawi is holding its breath as ballots from Tuesday’s presidential election are counted, with early indications suggesting former president Peter Mutharika is leading incumbent Lazarus Chakwera.
The nation of 22 million people is grappling not only with political uncertainty but also one of the worst economic crises in its history.
The election is the first national vote since Malawi’s Constitutional Court annulled the 2019 poll for widespread irregularities, setting a precedent in Africa. That decision led to a rerun in 2020, which Chakwera won, unseating Mutharika.
The shadow of that ruling hangs over this election, raising the stakes for both the Malawi Electoral Commission (MEC) and the country’s fragile democracy.
For Malawi’s 7.2 million registered voters, the central issue in the 16 September vote was survival. Inflation stands above 27%, with the cost of maize, the national staple, up 30% in the last year. Foreign currency shortages have caused chronic fuel queues and power blackouts, crippling small businesses and hospitals.
Climate shocks have added to the pain. Cyclone Freddy in 2023 killed more than 1 200 people and displaced hundreds of thousands. A severe drought in 2024 slashed crop yields, leaving nearly four million Malawians at risk of hunger, according to the World Food Programme.
“We don’t need another politician; we need someone who can fix the economy,” said youth activist Charles Chisambo.
Although 17 candidates appeared on the ballot, the election was dominated by Chakwera, of the Malawi Congress Party, and Mutharika, of the Democratic Progressive Party.
Chakwera campaigned in 2020 on promises to end corruption and create a million jobs, but his term has been dogged by nepotism scandals and the economic downturn.
Mutharika, touting past infrastructure projects, is seeking redemption despite corruption allegations from his own presidency.
“It’s a choice between two disappointments,” political analyst Chris Nhlane told local media.
The MEC has faced criticism, with opposition parties and civil society accusing it of bias. In June 2025, a rally calling for resignations at the commission was attacked by masked men wielding machetes, raising fears of intimidation.
On voting day, technical failures in biometric voter machines forced some stations to revert to manual checks, but observers reported that voting continued smoothly.
Civil society groups sent more than 5 000 monitors through an election situation room to provide real-time oversight. MEC chairperson Justice Annabel Mtalimanja said the initiative would “enhance transparency”.
Unofficial tallies show Mutharika leading in southern districts, with Chakwera strong in central regions. But under Malawi’s revised electoral law, a candidate must secure more than 50% of the vote to avoid a second round.
With the field split and no clear majority, analysts say a run-off within 30 days is increasingly likely.
International observers from the European Union, African Union and the Southern African Development Community have praised the generally peaceful conduct of voting but warned against “premature declarations”.
EU chief observer Lucia Annunziata said trust in the MEC was “critical to avoiding instability”.
Official results are due by 24 September.
Follow the results live here