Madeleine Wackernagel
SUBSTANTIAL falls in formal sector employment levels are threatening to undermine the government’s Growth, Employment and Redistribution (Gear) strategy, which aims to create 400 000 jobs a year by the turn of the century, assuming economic growth of 6%.
Two disturbing trends are coming to light – total employment, according to Central Statistical Service data, fell almost 1% in the first quarter of this year, a loss of 66 000 positions. Over the year to March, despite some fluctuations, total employment fell by just over 1%.
Second, the few jobs that have been created since 1994 are in the public sector. In the year to March, the private sector shed about 95 000 jobs, while the state employed an additional 40 000 people.
This emphasis on the role of the state is highlighted in the new Green Paper – Public Works Towards the 21st Century – unveiled yesterday by the Public Works Department (PWD): “Employment in the formal sector in South Africa is not keeping pace with the growth in the economy. This is true today, even taking into account the recent economic upswing.”
Of the 14,3-million economically active people identified in the 1994 October Household Survey, 9,6-million were in work, while 4,7-million were unemployed. The census currently under way should shed more up-to- date light on the figures but the message is clear.
Says Dr Neva Makgetla of the Department of Labour: “Jobless growth is a worldwide phenomenon but what we are seeing in South Africa is under-employment, with low productivity and low incomes, exacerbating our already very skewed pattern of income distribution. The alternative to formal employment is the informal sector, which means poor pay and poor conditions – that is no way to go.”
And while the private sector has been concentrating on capital-intensive investment, it is left to the state to take the labour-intensive route: “Job creation through the national public works programme is based upon two strategic approaches: changing the rules governing the provision of infrastructure to increase labour-intensity, and promoting community-based public works,” says the Green Paper.
The department’s role in job creation is especially important because it is targeted at the unskilled and low-skilled – who often suffer the highest unemployment rates.
“It is envisaged in the government’s Gear policy document that `a quarter of the new jobs will be created through accelerated labour-based infrastructural development and maintenance of public works in urban and rural areas’ … As highlighted in the national public works programme, both direct and indirect effects of PWD activities will be crucial for the introduction and promotion of labour-based technology in development and maintenance of state assets.”
So far, the PWD is pleased with its progress. Says a representative: “At provincial level there are a few snags, so they will not meet their budget targets by the year-end, but they should be on track for next March. But even so, one million labour days have been created in short-term programmes, with a five-to-six month duration, which provide people with training and the opportunity to enter the formal market or start their own businesses.”
But with the closure of the Reconstruction and Development Programme office, the department is unclear if this year’s budget allocation of R250-million will be repeated in 1997-98. “We are awaiting clarification and will approach State Expenditure for funds next year.”
The real worry now is that as the economy contracts – growth forecasts for next year are already being downgraded to about 2,5% from 3% this year – the prospects for large- scale job creation become increasingly dim. But if the government is to meet its Budget deficit target, it certainly cannot afford to take the lead.
The private sector, says a union source, must play its role. “The emphasis on capital- intensive industry is a hangover from the apartheid era; machines were less trouble than people. But the private sector must take its share of responsibility for getting this country on its feet; it is no longer feasible to invest in machines alone.”