FRIDAY, 8.30AM
LATEST Central Statistics Service figures from the first quarter of 1997 show that a 34,1% slump in agriculture was the main cause of a drop in gross domestic product by an annualised 0,8% from the previous quarter
The weaker than expected result has caused economists to predict that a Reserve Bank cut in the bank rate will now come sooner than expected. The revised predictions are that the GDP growth rate will be below 2,5%, less than projected in the government’s Gear strategy, and below the population growth rate.
The CSS report says: “The total seasonally adjusted real GDP at market prices decreased by an annualised 0,8% in the first quarter of 1997, following an increase of 3,3% in the fourth quarter of 1996. This negative growth rate in the first quarter – the first since the first quarter of 1994 – can mainly be ascribed to the decline of 34,1% (at an annualised rate) in the seasonally adjusted real agricultural production.
“Should agriculture be excluded however, the seasonally adjusted real GDP of the non-agricultural sector recorded a positive growth rate of 1,4% in the first quarter of 1997 compared with the fourth quarter of 1996. The sector that contributed most to this positive growth rate is manufacturing with a growth rate of 3,6% as against 2,2% in the fourth quarter of 1996.
“All the other sectors recorded positive growth rates in the first quarter except for the mining and trade and catering sectors which showed decreases in their seasonally adjusted real production in the first quarter of 1997, namely 0,4% and 1,2% respectively.”