Mungo Soggot
The government has snapped into action over the potentially disastrous drought effects on the economy of El Ni=F1o.
Several government departments are contributing to a Cabinet memorandum on the climatic phenomenon in an initiative driven by Constitutional Affairs Minister Valli Moosa, who chairs a Cabinet committee to handle disasters. According to the Director General of the Department of Agriculture, Bongiwe Njobe-Nbuli, Moosa will be steering a team of the relevant departments, which even includes public enterprises. She said the memorandum would probably be presented to Cabinet next Wednesday. But she declined to indicate what recommendations would be made.
Economists say that thanks to the climatic phenomenon the likelihood of below normal rainfall over the 1997/98 rainy season is now more than 50%. They add that the agriculture sector could also be badly hit in the following years of the drought cycle.
Economists are warning that heavy agricultural imports could take a bite of at least R1-billion out of the balance of payments. SBC Warburg says that in a worst- case scenario, maize production could fall to 3,5-million tons, a drop of 50% on 1996/97 estimates. That translates into a potential 0,8% decline in gross domestic product for next year.