Chris Gordon and Peta Thornycroft
Both Unita, Angola’s rebels, and the ruling MPLA government say the United Nations sanctions imposed on Unita this week will not spark off a new war.
Speaking from New York, Unita’s ambassador to the UN Jaime Vilasanta, putting a brave face on the UN move, said the sanctions would change Unita’s political attitudes and position within government structures in Luanda.
The security council imposition of a second set of sanctions followed Unita’s refusal to dismantle its remaining military structures and surrender its towns of Andulo and Bailundo in central Angola by the end of October. The UN peacekeeping mission in Angola has been extended to January 1998 and will retain 3 000 peacekeepers.
Vilasanta said the most difficult issue facing Unita was the question of security for their leaders, and until that was resolved neither Unita leader Jonas Savimbi nor his closest lieutenants would feel safe enough to move from Bailundo.
The sanctions include withdrawal of all Unita’s diplomatic privileges and a complete ban on flights from UN member states into or out of Unita-held territory, except in the case of humanitarian aid.
Unita does not see the package of sanctions as an immediate threat to its diplomatic missions in London, Brussels, Geneva, Bonn, Abidjan, Morocco, Lisbon, Togo, New York and Washington. Vilasanta thought each of the respective governments would take time to consider their positions and pass the necesary legislation to outlaw Unita.
The security council statement made it clear, though, the UN itself would advise member states on the rapid implementation of the measures adopted against Unita. The aim of the travel ban is to prevent Unita resupply operations and make it more difficult for diamond dealers to fly to northern Angola to buy stones.
A UN representative told the Mail & Guardian that the Angolan government had intervened to seek a delay in the implementation of the sanctions. The government wanted a final chance for a settlement within the terms of the Lusaka peace accords of 1994. Unita had accepted the government’s offer of a diamond deal, which would have allowed it to control the mines until January.
Sanctions may signal the automatic suspension of the Lusaka accords, according to Alioune Blondin-Beye, UN Secretary General Kofi Annan’s special representative in Angola. But this is not a trigger for war. Vilasanta said: “We have no stomach for war.”
Vilasanta did not comment on the number of undeclared military personnel still to be demobilised. Unita’s latest disclosure of 500 undeclared soldiers was rejected by the UN. The rebels also have considerable amounts of undisclosed war matriel. The MPLA’s Washington lobbyist, Jim Woods, doesn’t believe either side will return to the battlefield. “I don’t think this is serious enough to send them back to war. This is a step to increase the voltage, another jolt.”
Woods believes Unita will “grudgingly move along because Dr Savimbi is a practical man. He can see he has lost his regional support base.” He said the Unita leader would reason: “It is better to accommodate them than to fight. But, there is a danger, I guess, that after 20 years in the bush one can lose the context.” Woods believes Unita will slowly realise the peace process offers commercial opportunities.
Unita restarted the 17-year war with the MPLA after it lost the first democratic elections in 1992.