/ 15 January 1998

‘Famine as usual’ in 1998

THURSDAY 3.30PM:

A DISMAL future is predicted for world food supplies by the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations. In his report for 1997, FAO director-general Jacques Diouf identified the increase in frequency and severity of disasters caused by war and climate as the likely causes.

Diouf said that since the 1960s, the number of “complex emergencies” has been increasing, costing billions of dollars in food aid.

“The world witnessed 16 major disasters in the 1960s, 29 in the 1970s and 70 in the 1980s. The upward trend continues. “The economic damage of disasters is estimated at $93-billion for the 1980s and will almost certainly exceed $100-billion for this decade,” Diouf said.

Experts apparently do not agree on the causes for the increase in natural disasters, some pointing to climatic changes and global warming, while others identify cyclical climatic change as the problem.

Socio-political changes suspected include the end of the cold war, corruption and mismanagement. In the 1990s, about 50-million people have been displaced. Increasing amounts of aid money go towards disaster relief rather than development.

At present, as so often, Africa seems to be bearing the brunt of both natural and political disasters, with conflicts of different orders currently hurting Sudan, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Algeria, Sudan, Ethiopia, Somalia, Rwanda, Burundi, Sierra Leone, Liberia and Angola, among others.