Nelson Mandela is promoting peace and development in Luanda … but neither are foregone conclusions
Chris Gordon
President Nelson Mandela’s visit to Angola this week takes place against a background of rumours of war and the poor health of President Jos Eduardo dos Santos. Mandela is scheduled to meet Dos Santos to discuss the two countries’ vexed relations.
The Angolan president is believed to have cancer of the prostate and his condition is said to be deteriorating. According to the United Nations peace agreement, elections have to be held within three months if the president dies.
Despite signs of progress towards peace, there are fears Unita leader Jonas Savimbi could be playing for time. The possibility of a return to fighting to capitalise on the present uncertainty has been bolstered by recent evidence of arms shipments from South Africa to the rebel movement’s rear bases in Zambia.
Despite the strong ties between the African National Congress and Angola’s ruling MPLA, built up during the years of struggle, relations since South Africa’s 1994 elections have been cooler than expected.
Claude Kabemba, foreign policy analyst at the Centre for Policy Studies, believes one cause is the expectation on the part of other African states that the change from the old to the new order in South Africa would be dramatic.
Angola in particular has found it difficult to accept that members of the former South African Defence Force who supported a vicious civil war are still in positions of power. “Transformation has been slow; there are real factors that have kept people in that position.”
Conflicting internal security needs between the nations have left the Angolans aggrieved. Angola provided bases for the ANC during the apartheid era and suffered the continuing consequences. That South Africa has had to maintain its internal security by accommodating the old order is by no means easy to accept.
Kabemba thinks a key objective of Mandela’s visit is to begin to break down the mistrust over what seems like a betrayal.
Says Vicky Maharaj, representative of the Department of Foreign Affairs: “The principal aim of this visit is to demonstrate support for the [Angolan] peace process.”
One of the items on the agenda will be the supply flights from South Africa to Unita- held territory, in defiance of UN sanctions. South Africa’s inability to control these flights has been a source of contention between the two governments, and has supported Savimbi’s ability to delay, if not defy, the peace process.
The forcing down of a DC-4 with supplies for Unita in January provided embarrassing proof that South Africa’s control measures on illegal flights don’t work. But, in an almost surreal mixture, Mandela will also be promoting the development of bilateral and multilateral trade relations, and addressing the South Africa-Angola Investment Conference.
Kabemba points out that trade and security are closely linked, which is certainly true in this case. To date South African trade with Angola has encompassed the work of security companies, including a contract with the notorious Executive Outcomes and the freelance activities of individuals like former superspy Craig Williamson, who set up import-export businesses. Illicit trade with Unita has also boosted exports to Angola.
The mistrust between Angola and South Africa has meant long delays in setting up serious trade relations. Most trading nations, including France, have now signed trade accords with Angola. The United States and France are set to be Angola’s most significant trading partners as oil exports increase, following discoveries in the past 18 months.
Kabemba points out that trade with Angola is presently very imbalanced, with considerable input from the informal sector, and it is necessary to build up this sector within the Southern African Development Community (SADC).
The spatial development initiatives under discussion are rooted in the needs of the region’s mining companies, in the hope that further investment will follow the miners.
South African mining companies working diamonds and iron ore, including De Beers and Anglo American, will benefit, as should smaller companies such as Ocean Diamond Mining and Trans Hex, which are both scheduled to begin mining operations in Angola.
In this opening shot at strengthening relations, the most important element South Africa can bring to the table is guarantees for Angola’s internal security – for an end to illicit support for Unita.
Previous trade and security accords have been made via the SADC, rather than by the South African government. Multilateral accords have achieved little; bilateral accords and more action by the South African government may be more successful. But there does not seem to be any way in which South Africa can provide those guarantees, and this failure may help provoke further instability in Angola.
Richard Cornwell, head of the Institute for Security Studies, believes full implementation of the previous peace accords is unlikely at present. “Savimbi will delay and delay until conditions change,” he says.
Savimbi may be hoping for a deterioration in Dos Santos’s health before he makes any move. Last week the president made his first public appearance since surgery in Brazil last November, to address the MPLA party congress, according to Agence France Presse. There he announced that he wants the second round of presidential elections held, though he did not give a date.
The elections, which would include the MPLA nominee and Savimbi as candidates, would at least allow an orderly transfer of power if Dos Santos dies, or decides not to run.
The elections, though difficult to organise, would also clarify Unita’s intentions.
* Mario Paiva reports from Luanda that the UN Security Council is due to discuss this week the Angolan peace process, particularly the continuation of the UN observation mission, which is due to complete its mandate in December 1998 or January 1999.
The mission will be reduced to 450 people: 90 observers, 120 infantry members based in Luanda to protect civilians, military hospital staff, its communications and helicopter unit.
UN special representative Alioune Beye expressed his opposition to new sanctions on Unita at the last security council meeting, saying “significant political progress has been made, but there are serious concerns on the military side in certain provinces of the country, in particular in Malange, Huambo and Benguela”.
A UN observer mission press release this week confirmed an assault by unidentified soldiers in N’gove, Huambo province on April 22. It said UN officials were not assaulted, but many civilians had been – “by armed men with olive-green uniforms”.