Howard Barrell
The Angolan government is having difficulty finding the money to pay for a large consignment of arms it needs to mount a dry-season counter-offensive against Jonas Savimbi’s Unita rebels, according to regional security sources.
The government has already postponed the counter-offensive once, and looks like having to do so again because of a shortage of artillery, rocket launchers and armour, the sources say.
The Mail & Guardian sources said the Angolan government’s financial predicament was worse than it had ever been. What they described as ”dribs and drabs” of arms were getting through, but ”not the heavy stuff the government needs”.
Unita, meanwhile, is slowly tightening its noose around the capital, Luanda, and various diamond-rich areas across the country. Diamonds have provided most of Unita’s funds since the civil war began after Angolan independence in 1975.
Luanda is now home to about 4,5-million, many of whom have fled from fighting in outlying areas. The population in the capital makes up just less than half Angola’s population, and sources warn of a humanitarian catastrophe if the shooting war moves into the capital.
Actual fighting in the capital, however, seems still to be some way off, although sources warn of Unita terror units being smuggled into the capital to worsen the nervous atmosphere among Luanda residents. There has been a marked decline in morale in the city in recent months – fuelled by, among other things, a crude campaign to conscript all able-bodied men.
Political developments within the government are also causing concern. There are indications that relations between President Jos Eduardo dos Santos and the Ministry of Defence are strained. At the same time, the defence ministry is, inexplicably, ”full of beans”, one of the sources said.
”Tactically, on the ground, the government is getting hit harder and more frequently than we thought,” one said. ”And the fact is that there is nothing that government armed forces can do about it at this stage.
”But the government is just beating the propaganda drum. And sometimes they believe it themselves,” the source added.
Meanwhile, Unita is indicating a willingness to talk, confirming the view that it has long seen negotiations with the government as the first prize of its recent military advances. The government, however, has insisted it will not negotiate with Savimbi. Attempts over the past year to negotiate with non- or anti-Savimbi factions of Unita have not brought any reduction in the fighting.
Unita is the target of international sanctions because of its non-compliance with earlier peace agreements. But experts argue that attempts to marginalise Savimbi have not worked and it is time to rethink this approach.
They argue there needs to be pressure on both sides to talk – a view rapidly gaining ground within South Africa’s foreign policy and intelligence establishment. The argument is that, if the subcontinent is to avoid a humanitarian catastrophe, the international community needs to overcome its almost ”punch-drunk state” on Angola and find the political will to apply whatever pressure is necessary.