Howard Barrell
The knives are out in the New National Party for its leader, Marthinus van Schalkwyk, after the massive reversals his party suffered at the hands of voters on Wednesday.
Senior colleagues, while maintaining a brave face in public, complained in private that they had been misled by Van Schalkwyk into a badly conceived campaign.
As the NNP’s disastrous results rolled in at the Independent Electoral Commission election centre in Pretoria, Van Schalkwyk was nowhere to be seen for most of the day.
The NNP saw its share of the vote drop to about only 7%, a third of the support it enjoyed five years ago. It also lost its position as the largest opposition party – or official opposition.
A number of Van Schalkwyk’s senior parliamentary colleagues, who spoke to the Mail & Guardian on condition of anonymity, referred in contemptuous terms to their leader.
“Our campaign was a complete disaster. Go and ask the leader for an explanation for that,” said one MP, who is also a senior party office-bearer.
“This is a catastrophe for us. Tell Marthinus to explain it to you – if he can. I can’t,” another told the M&G.
A third NNP heavyweight said that Democratic Party leader Tony Leon had managed to play the role that his own party leader should have filled – that of saviour of those scared of the new South Africa.
Van Schalkwyk was locked in meetings with his closest political allies throughout Thursday morning and the early afternoon. He rescheduled an early-morning press conference to mid-afternoon as the scale of his party’s setback became clear.
At the press conference, Van Schalkwyk shrugged off reports of discontent with his leadership, saying he was in full control of his party.
He gave notice, however, that his party was casting around for partners. It was willing to enter strategic alliances both with other opposition parties and the ruling African National Congress, he said.
With regard to the Western Cape, Van Schalkwyk said that, in the case of a coalition government being formed, his party’s first preference was a partnership with opposition parties. But he avoided ruling out a coalition in the province with the ANC.
In what was clearly intended as a reference to the DP, he said: “What we aren’t willing to do is to become part of a right-wing laager.” He said the DP was preaching the politics of exclusion, whereas his party was committed to “inclusivity”.
Party political sources disclosed at midday on Thursday that there had been a flurry of telephone calls between Western Cape ANC leader Ebrahim Rasool and his NNP counterpart, Gerald Morkel, earlier in the morning during which they had explored the prospects for an ANC/NNP coalition in the Western Cape.
The M&G was told that Van Schalkwyk was kept abreast of these developments as he and his closest aides sought a way out of a tight corner for him. But, late on Thursday, an ANC leadership source in the Western Cape denied contact had yet taken place between Rasool and Morkel
The ANC’s national and Western Cape leaderships were, however, understood to be considering their options late on Thursday in light of their expectation that Van Schalkwyk would have to use his party’s relatively strong position in the province as a bargaining chip to retain some relevance at national level.
@` Die ANC ruk in die Kaap’
Marianne Merten
The Western Cape African National Congress was getting into celebration mode late on Thursday afternoon as it began to inch ahead of its political rival, the New National Party – keeping its hopes alive for at least a moral win over the apartheid-era Nationalists.
As the results from ANC strongholds in many townships, which experienced problems on polling day, trickled into the Independent Electoral Commission’s result centre after lunch on Thursday, the ANC slowly moved ahead at the painful pace of half a percent at a time.
Earlier, the sentiment among party officials was that even if the ANC only moved a couple of percentage points ahead of the NNP, it would be a victory in the province the NNP has touted as an example of its style of government.
ANC premier candidate Ebrahim Rasool told jubilant supporters: “We can celebrate our victory in the Western Cape.”
As the champagne bottles were popped, ANC officials started dancing to the election tune “Die ANC ruk in die Kaap, dis duidelik” (The ANC moves in the Cape, that’s clear).
“We are ahead by 1%!” Just after 2pm this message spread through the provincial head offices of the ANC in Athlone and weary officials, provincial members of Parliament and the city council and several Cabinet members were suddenly energised. Earlier wins from Khayelitsha, Guguletu and rural areas had been greeted with vivas, cheers and whistles.
Once it became clear the ANC was in the lead, Minister of Finance Trevor Manuel punched a filing cabinet and shouted “Yes!” before he joined Minister of Water Affairs and Forestry Kader Asmal, Minister of Justice Dullah Omar and others to wait out what promised to become a nail-biting finish in front of the television.
Around 4pm the gap had widened in favour of the ANC. To many, this almost seemed a dream come true after months of door-to- door canvassing and relentless election campaigning across the province.
Voters in areas like Khayelitsha, Guguletu, Nyanga and Langa, where thousands of people at around 120 stations stood patiently in line until early Thursday morning, clearly made their voices heard. In some of these trouble-ridden areas, voter turnout hit well above 90%. Last-minute hopes that ballots cast in these ANC strongholds would result in an 11th-hour boost for the party seemed correct by late Thursday.
Rasool said it still remained to be seen how many votes these night queues had cost the ANC. At the time of going to press it appeared efforts by national ministers and provincial officials to keep voters in line until around 3.30am seemed to have paid off.
Although by late Thursday afternoon it looked certain the township vote had swayed the balance of power in the province, the ANC also made gains in traditional white and coloured areas on the peninsula.
The Cape Town municipal area showed a 47% vote in favour of the ANC. Although the party was beaten across Mitchells Plain, the percentage of votes for the ANC increased from an average of 10% to 15% in 1994 to between 20% and 25% this time. For example, two voting stations in the gangland of Mannenberg – traditional NNP turf – went to the ANC.
Informal but strategic discussions between provincial ANC officials and national figures over what should be done in case there was no definite win by the party in the Western Cape started as results trickled in throughout the day. It was confirmed such talks would continue until the final poll figures were known.
Should there be a need for a coalition or alliance, talks with other parties would only then take place, with an announcement only expected next week. But all the players were keeping their cards close to the chest. At this stage, it seems the NNP may be the most likely option for the ANC, even though many have described this as an association of “unlikely bedfellows”.
By late Thursday afternoon, NNP leader Marthinus van Schalkwyk said he still hoped for an outright majority in the Western Cape. He has not ruled out a coalition with the government, although the first choice would be other opposition parties.
“Our first choice will be to be the senior partner in a coalition. We will first explore our options for coalition parties with one or more of the opposition parties,” said Van Schalkwyk, adding that the NNP did not want to become stuck in a white laager.
“We are also willing to strategically co- operate with the government for the sake of the country,” said Van Schalkwyk.
Predictions before the June 2 election about who may go into bed with who in the Western Cape shed light on divisions within the NNP.
It is believed firebrand MEC for Health Peter Marais was in favour of a coalition with the ANC. This was much to the disgruntlement of white party conservatives.
It remains to be seen whether Marais has the clout to persuade party hardliners about the move towards the ANC. It is believed Marais has canvassed widely for support among coloured NNP members.
The Democratic Party has made significant gains in the province, gathering the disillusioned white voters and a surprising number of disenchanted coloured voters in areas like Mitchells Plain, Belgravia and the Cape Flats.
It has been clear the DP and its leader in the province, Hennie Bester, have left open the door to an alliance with the NNP, while clearly ruling out any association with the ANC.
“We will not put an ANC-controlled government in place in the Western Cape. We have said it before, it is against the grain of liberal principles,” said Bester, hinting at “very interesting discussions” to come once the final voting tally is known.
“Who knows, it takes two to tango, it may take three to circle, it may be a quadruple.”