Claude Kabemba
A Second Look
The rebellion against the government of President Laurent Kabila in the Democratic Republic of Congo stands at the crossroads.
Divisions within the rebel Rassemblement Congolais pour la Democratie (RCD) movement and within the Uganda/Rwanda rebel alliance has placed a serious question mark on the ability of the rebels to win the war or even to continue in their current state.
The RCD’s internationally respected leader, Ernest Wamba dia Wamba, has been replaced by Dr Emile Ilunga – a medical doctor. Wamba’s ousting vindicates the sad surprise and shock that many people first felt at the news that he had joined the RCD as its president.
Wamba is one of the finest academics this continent has produced. Some people assumed in the early days of the rebellion that Wamba was the only card through which to end the war in Congo. There is no doubt that the international credibility of the rebellion increased with his presence.
Sadly, he was operating and collaborating with people who do not have the interests of Congo at heart in a war disliked by the majority of the Congolese population.
The immediate causes of the split are contrasting ideas as to how the rebellion should be conducted.
The political wing of the rebellion on which Wamba had influence believed in a negotiated settlement of the conflict. It also wanted the rebellion transformed into a liberation movement which would include “people from all walks of life” (Wamba’s own words).
On the other hand, the military wing – which retains most of the power to take and execute decisions – believes in a military victory which would exclude any power- sharing with Kabila. The big players in this group are the Banyamulenge – Tutsi and ex-Mobutu Sese Seko associates.
Wamba’s failure to compromise on his democratic principles became a threat to many in the rebellion. He believed in practising democracy now as a rebel movement rather than later in government. For instance, he insisted on the inclusion of civil society in the movement. This was to dispel the widespread belief that the rebellion would break its promise to democratise politics in Congo once installed in power in Kinshasa.
The division among the Congolese in the rebellion is just a symptom of a much deeper split which threatens the long-term survival of the rebellion – the division between Rwanda and Uganda. The former has allied itself with the rebellion’s military wing; the latter is closer to Wamba.
The division between these two countries is mostly over policy in Congo. But it is the division on the ground that precipitated the current crisis among the rebels.
Firstly, there were disagreements between Rwandese and Ugandan soldiers over who should get preferential access to the plundering of resources in the occupied territory.
Secondly, Uganda did not want to associate itself with Rwanda’s policy of mass killings in Congo. This created a power- struggle about who should be in command of military operations in Congo.
Contrary to what Rwanda and Uganda would have us believe, there is a major rift between them which forced Uganda to take the unilateral decision to initiate negotiation with Kabila and to withdraw its troops from Congo.
These divisions have weakened the rebellion politically and militarily. Without Uganda the rebellion is indeed powerless. The future of the crisis in Congo remains unclear. The apparent dissipation of the rebellion should not lead Kabila and his allies to think that they can launch a successful offensive to eliminate the insurgents. The question now is not about who wins but how to start building peace in Congo and the region.
Besides the presence of the different national armies in Congo, there are at least 12 other irregular armed groups -from Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, Sudan and Congo – which need to be dealt with. But as far as Congo is concerned, an inclusive negotiated settlement remains the only solution for a sustainable peace. Nevertheless, it is not possible , as yet, to talk with much confidence of a future programme based on an agreement signed by the current politicians.
One of the real tragedies of Congo is that the country has plenty of clever politicians but no true statesmen to involve the Congolese people in finding a solution to the crisis. Civil society continues to be sidelined by Kabila and the rebels.
Both Kabila and Wamba have expressed readiness to enter into negotiations. But Wamba has neither a strong political base nor a military force to make him a credible representative of the rebellion. He might need Uganda’s backup. In an effort to strengthen his camp, Wamba might consider forming a new alliance with Jean-Pierre Bemba’s rebel group, a plausible scenario considering that they are both backed by Uganda.
This group could then enter into negotiations with Kabila, marginalising Ilunga’s Rwanda-backed group further if it continues to opt for a military solution. The current political and military atmosphere might favour Kabila to emerge as victor after negotiations.
We can assume today that the time is ripe for mediation. Mediators from Zambian President Frederick Chiluba to South African Deputy President Thabo Mbeki and Libyan President Moammar Gadaffi should co- ordinate their efforts and try to capitalise on the attitude of the main actors-Kabila, Wamba, Uganda and Rwanda.
They have all expressed willingness to end the war.
Claude Kabemba is a foreign policy analyst at the Centre for Policy Studies