Andy Capostagno RUGBY
The Super 12 has reached the point of no return. Those coaches who have invested in slide rules to calculate the lowest number of log points required to reach the semi- finals can throw them away on Monday if their teams lose this weekend. That goes for John Connolly of the Reds as much as it does for Laurie Mains of the Cats and Alan Solomons of the Stormers.
The Cats’ home game against the Reds will be a bitter-sweet encounter for Mains because it is in Bloemfontein. He has campaigned to have all the Cats games played at Ellis Park, but the politics of the unholy alliance thrown together by the South African Rugby Football Union (Sarfu) demands two matches in the city of roses.
Ironically, the Super 12 match is now effectively a curtain-raiser for the Vodacom Cup final between Free State and Griquas, a contest which has prompted more talk of a Super 12 region to be located in the heart of the country.
You may recall that when Sarfu announced its regional plan three years ago, the mistake which now requires Mains to play “at home” in Bloemfontein was clearly evident. As always in South African rugby it came down to an ego thing and if four regions were required then two of them had to be the Lions and the Bulls, despite the fact that they were both from the same region.
That required Free State, then a considerably greater force in playing terms than either of the northern unions, to accept a minor role in the Cats, despite providing most of the players. Economics has dictated that the bulk of those Free Staters now live and play in Johannesburg and it is to the great credit of their original union that it has produced another crop of talented youngsters in time to contest the Vodacom Cup with flair and pace – the two things which have always singled out teams from Bloemfontein.
Down the road in Kimberley, Griquas have for the last four years revealed a production line of ferocious forwards and, in Andre Markgraaff, a keen eye for talent in other provinces. Griquas’ game is based upon relentless forward pressure, good tactical kicking and frenzied defence.
Put those qualities together with Free State and you would indeed produce a Super 12 region to conjure with, but don’t hold your breath waiting for it to happen – there is too much vested interest in the status quo, and too much ill-regard between the Bulls and the Lions.
By comparison, in the old days of the Super 10 North Harbour competed alongside Auckland, despite the fact that both were from the city of sails. But when the New Zealand Rugby Football Union went regional, North Harbour became a feeder union for the five new brands. It was a harsh economic decision which has reaped a rich reward.
All of which is academic compared to the main question: can the tangled mess, which is the permanent backdrop to the Cats’ endeavours, be overcome along with the Reds at Free State Stadium on Saturday? Anyone who saw the way Mains’s team dismembered the defending champions at Ellis Park must believe they have a better than even chance.
Much will depend on finding a referee as accommodating as Wayne Erickson. The balding Aussie allowed the Cats to pour through and around the fringes to spoil the Crusaders half-back play of Justin Marshall and Andrew Mehrtens in a most clinical fashion. And having secured turnover ball, the Cats became the first South African side this year to prove conclusively that they knew what to do with it.
Asked how he might cope with the Cats in Bloemfontein, Reds coach Connolly said he might seek dispensation to play with 10 forwards instead of the usual eight. There are those who will point to the fact that since John Eales regularly performs the work of three men, Connolly already has his numerical advantage.
It is not overstating the case to say that this one match could decide the fate of South African rugby in the short term. With reputations in tatters after a 64-0 thrashing by the Brumbies, the Cats have now proved they can beat a team with as many options as the Crusaders.
In the Reds they meet a side with great players in Eales and Tim Horan, who can nevertheless grind out the results in a manner more familiar with the old Five Nations. It is too much like tempting fate to expect the Cats to win and act as a harbinger of better days for Springbok rugby.
And the same can be said of the Stormers, who take on the Highlanders in Cape Town. After a conspicuously successful Australasian jaunt, last week’s bye may have come at precisely the wrong time. The visit of the Highlanders will also reopen the sores of last year’s semi-final debacle when the Stormers’ players tried to blackmail the executive on the morning of the match.
What is the bottom line? It is simply this; one or both of Solomons and Mains will be waving bye-bye to his slide rule on Monday. I fancy it will not be Mains.