Zimbabwe’s President Robert Mugabe may finally be on his way out as the opposition and the population turn against him Mercedes Sayagues As impeachment proceedings against President Robert Mugabe got under way this week, a major new opinion survey has found that a clear majority of Zimbabweans support the opposition Movement for Democratic Change’s (MDC) efforts to oust the recalcitrant ruler. According to the poll, released this week by the Helen Suzman Foundation, the bid by the opposition Movement for Democratic Change this week to impeach the president has the backing of 56% urban and rural adults, while 27% oppose it. All in all, the survey paints a picture of a presidency on a knife-edge – only 14% of the population want him to continue in office. The poll – conducted by Probe Market Research, the Harare subsidiary of Gallup International – says more than half of the respondents believe Mugabe should be put on trial for the crimes alleged against him, even if he resigns, while 24% believe he should be offered immunity from prosecution in return for his resignation. The survey also shows a marked decline in support for the president within the ruling party. Among Zanu-PF supporters, however, just less than half want Mugabe to continue as president. Of those supporters polled, 24% thought he should be given immunity from prosecution, while 20% opted for a trial even if Mugabe resigns. The survey interviewed a national random sample of 2 000 voters in rural and urban areas, a large sample for a population of 11-million. This is the third opinion survey the foundation has carried out in Zimbabwe this year. The first took place at the time of the constitutional referendum in February and the second around parliamentary elections in June. The recent survey notes a significant erosion of support for Zanu-PF even among its traditional power base, rural people and older adults. Two-thirds of the electorate believes that Zanu-PF is in decline and will soon lose power. Only one voter in five believes the party can recover its strength. MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai leads Mugabe as the choice for next president by 41% to 15%, while Minister of Finance Simba Makoni scored 8%. Against this background of dissatisfaction, compounded by a severe economic crisis, the MDC motion to impeach Mugabe, tabled in Parliament this week, is well timed. The MDC charges Mugabe with gross misconduct, including corruption among close family members; violation of the Constitution and wilful disregard of the rule of law for waging war in the Democratic Republic of the Congo without the approval of Parliament, ignoring court orders to stop farm invasions, condoning the arrest and torture of two journalists by the military, and abusing the prerogative of mercy by pardoning people who engaged in violence before the elections. Zanu-PF MPs showed up en masse for this electrically charged session. Patrick Chinamasa, former attorney general and now a Zanu-PF MP, threatened to charge with contempt of Parliament any newspaper that published the MDC motion.
“This is sheer madness. The MDC has been watching too much TV during Clinton’s impeachment,” said Information Minister Jonathan Moyo. “The MDC are a bunch of misguided people who are paying back their masters in Europe with this motion. The Rhodesians are behind it.” Mugabe amplified this view the same day when he threatened to arrest former prime minister Ian Smith and all the whites who fought against the liberation forces. “The era of reconciliation is over,” he said. Mugabe was speaking at a small rally at the Zanu-PF headquarters in Harare. After the rally, about 400 war veterans marched under police escort to Parliament. Their industrially printed placards read: “Arrest Tsvangirai”; “Get MDC MPs out: dissolve Parliament today”; “Impeach the Chief Justice, not the President”; “Investigate the citizenship of judges”; “Down with the MDC Sandton Centre”; “Zimbabwe will never be a colony again”. They milled around Parliament for 30 minutes, toyi-toying among a fuel queue of dozens of cars.
The impeachment move, based on Section 29 of Chapter IV of the Constitution (as amended by Section 26 of Act 31 of 1989) now has to be examined by the speaker of the House. If the motion is accepted, he must form a parliamentary committee to examine the grounds for impeachment. Eventually, Mugabe would be called to answer questions from the House, which will then decide on impeachment. Chances are slim that Mugabe will accept a grilling from MPs and that the move will garner the required two-thirds majority. Fifty-five MPS signed the motion, out of a total of 120, made up by 57 opposition MPs, 33 elected as Zanu-PF and 30 appointed by Mugabe. But even if impeachment fails, it is sending a strong message to Mugabe. “It will destroy his personal image and erode his rule,” says Job Sikhala, an MDC MP who was briefly detained for three days last week after speaking at a rally in his Chitungwiza township constituency. “We will be remembered as the Parliament who tried to impeach a dictator.”