David McKay
Anglo American, the United Kingdom-listed mining group, is forecast to suffer at least a one-fifth reduction in income from diamonds this financial year amid weakening confidence in the United States economy. That will be the implication of sales figures delivered by Anglo’s 45%-held subsidiary, De Beers, on June 19.
The diamond group is due to report half-year rough diamond sales, which the majority of South African analysts believe will fall to between $2,3-billion and $2,5-billion. In the worst-case scenario this is a 34% decline and, if maintained, will result in full-year sales of less than $5-billion, compared to last year’s record figures of $5,67-billion. This is because sales in the second half of the calendar year are always weaker than the first, often in a 60:40 ratio.
However, South African analysts remain confident that another year of record income from platinum subsidiary, Anglo Platinum, and a continued recovery in the coal division will more than ease the pain for Anglo American. Anglo American has also lifted its stake in De Beers from about 33% to 45%, offsetting some of the effect of the expected sales declines.
De Beers warned earlier this year that the market was slowing significantly, particularly given the group’s exposure to the US market. Almost half of retail sales are made to the US. However, the decline in sales figures, albeit off a high base, raises a few questions about the medium-term running and conditions of the diamond market.
The first is that a price war in the diamond market is possible. A large portion of De Beers’s rough diamonds sell at the high end of the market; therefore, the question remains whether the group will be forced to reduce its prices. Statements out of Russia suggest this may be the case, with authorities there girding themselves for a battle. (De Beers has abandoned its policy of supporting the market in favour of a more aggressive and competitive stance).
Secondly, one wonders whether the high level of debt at major De Beers’s shareholder, DB Investments, will see the group push more stocks to its buyers, the cutters and polishers of the rough diamonds. This follows the successful offer by DB Investments to buy and delist De Beers. The outcome was debt in DB Investments of about $3,3-billion in five-year money, $900-million in preference shares, and a further $1-billion in terms of a revolving credit facility.
In addition, De Beers mines are still thought to be running at 100% capacity and with stockpiles only beginning to mount at the retail end of the market, cutters and polishers could see their owns stocks starting to swell. Flooding the market also means it will take longer to recover. If this is so, income from diamonds will not be as impressive for Anglo American than in previous years.
Anglo has a lot going for it but investors may prefer Billiton due to its higher exposure to the bulk commodities, such as coal and iron ore; markets that are humming at the moment. Billiton is in the process of seeing through a merger with BHP.