Marianne Merten
At the end of a week of bizarre zig-zags in the Western Cape politics, Premier Gerald Morkel stands alone in the political wilderness while axed Cape Town mayor Peter Marais looks set to stage a political comeback.
Hours after Morkel was suspended from the New National Party for defying his political bosses and backing the Democratic Alliance, Marais was installed as acting provincial leader. Fellow NNP vice-chairpersons Martha Olckers and Pierre Uys, the provincial local government MEC, are in command with him.
African National Congress insiders say that as part of an agreement on joint provincial governance with the NNP, it would be willing to concede the premiership to its junior partner.
Two senior NNP leaders outside the province yesterday predicted Marais would succeed Morkel, one adding that “whoever else challenges for the premier’s job will have beat Peter”.
Other senior nationalists said such speculation was premature. Morkel will remain premier at least until the disciplinary inquiry by the NNP’s federal council executive is concluded. NNP said the hearing would have to take place soon.
The Western Cape ANC remains tight-lipped on the premiership. Publicly dismissing what it calls “haggling over posts”, it says this will detract from the significance of the national political realignment.
Morkel yesterday filed papers in the High Court challenging his suspension, saying that it was mere intimidation. However, the show of force by fellow NNP MECs in support of his decision to defy party bosses was in tatters less than 24 hours later.
Marais’s application to overturn his suspension from the Democratic Alliance was also heard this week. A ruling is likely only next week.
On Thursday morning six of the seven MECs pledged their support to Van Schalkwyk and his move towards cooperation on all three tiers of the government. It was clear that Van Schalkwyk had to assert his authority in the NNP stronghold of the Western Cape, to keep his strategy of withdrawing from the DA on track.
Western Cape MEC for Finance, Business Promotion and Tourism Leon Markovitz did not sign the joint statement as he was ill. It is understood he suffered a minor heart attack overnight.
The tough action against Morkel and the reining in of NNP rebels has shaken plans to keep the Western Cape under DA control through the 1999 pact between the NNP and then Democratic Party. That agreement was signed to keep out of power the ANC, which had taken 42% of votes. The NNP has indicated it will give the required 30-days’ notice to withdraw from the agreement once the realignment process is complete.
NNP sources claim that at the heart of Morkel’s dilly-dallying was a DA promise of a deputy-leadership position in the alliance.
The current uncertainty over exactly how councillors will be allowed to defect has not helped Van Schalkwyk secure their commitment. In addition, councillors have much to risk if their seats are not guaranteed those in the rural hinterlands depend on council earnings.
Van Schalkwyk is to attend a meeting of all NNP leaders at provincial, local and branch levels in the Northern Cape on Saturday, and further NNP meetings are planned in the Western Cape next week.
However, NNP leaders conceded they were losing the propaganda war to a more sophisticated DA machine. “We can win councillors back, but only if we have the time to talk to them,” one said.
Van Schalkwyk on Thursday said the party had instructed its members to remain in the alliance until the defection clause was approved. Although the NNP expects a number of its councillors to remain within the alliance, it is certain the majority will cross over.
Earlier this week the DA said it had secured the backing of four caucuses in the Western Cape and the unanimous support of the Cape Town city council. Senior DA officials believe Van Schalkwyk overplayed his cards and was unlikely to muster even half his party to support his moves towards cooperation with the ANC.
But it would take only 24 DA members crossing the floor in Cape Town to take control from the DA; of the 107 DA councillors, 70 belong to the NNP while the ANC has 77.
And the balance of power in majority of the 12 DA-controlled rural councils hangs on just one or two seats, while at least eight other rural municipalities are hung and dependent on the vote of independent councillors.
It is expected the NNP could oust its former alliance partner in councils like Paarl the ANC has 25 seats against the DA’s 27, with four held by other political parties and two by independents and Stellenbosch, where the ANC has 14 seats and the DA 15, while independents hold three and other political parties another three seats.
Control of Malmesbury and Overstrand, formerly Greater Hermanus, is not expected to change because of the substantial seat difference: six ANC to 11 and 5 to 12 respectively.
The ANC controls four rural councils, including Plettenberg Bay and Beaufort West, and has secured the mayorship in at least two others through cooperative agreements with other political parties or independents.
Unlike the political furore within the Western Cape NNP, the pending cooperation with the ANC has caused few sparks in the other Nat stronghold of the Northern Cape. But there the power dynamics are vastly different because the ANC has swept the province with more than 64% of the votes in 1999 and last year.
It is widely anticipated the alliance will lose each of the five municipalities it controls when NNP members defect. The DP is a tiny player in that province with just less than 6% of the vote in 1999. This was boosted to 29% when the alliance with the NNP was formed.
The visible disintegration of the DA is continuing. Alliance posters and pamphlets have been removed from the Western Cape NNP office. In the provincial caucus room the photos of Morkel and Van Schalkwyk were gone by Tuesday. The nameplate bearing the premier’s name in gold-coloured letters, however, remained in its place above the door.