/ 1 January 2002

Rand gives up some gains, but stable trend is intact

THE South African rand gave up some of its latest gains on Wednesday, but remained poised to test the key 10/dollar level as global market conditions and sentiment remain in favour for the currency, traders said.

The rand opened 11 cents firmer at 10,10 and quickly raced to 10,04 — its best level since November 29 ? before retreating to 10,14 at 1020 GMT traders took profits.

”There are a few exporters in the market, who forced the early gains. Some profit-taking is responsible for part of the rand’s retracing of its steps,” a Johannesburg trader said.

The rand has firmed by nearly 19% against the dollar since the start of 2002, making it the best-performing currency in the world so far this year. It has also gained about 13% on a trade-weighted basis.

The rand has been buoyed in part by broad-based dollar weakness and rising global commodity prices, but also by a shift in sentiment in favour of South Africa spurred in part by a successful dollar-denominated government bond issue.

”The rand is expected to remain…strong against especially the dollar, which has to contend with international restlessness on outlook for US economy and corporate earnings along with changes to stock valuations,” PSG Investment Bank said.

”Improved domestic and regional political environment (is an) important first step in keeping the rand on road to greater stability,” it added.

Analysts say that less global media attention on Zimbabwe’s political and economic crisis and the South African government’s apparent reversal of policy on HIV-Aids last month has been viewed favourably by the foreign exchange market.

The rand slumped by 37% against the dollar last year, and about 34% on a trade-weighted basis. Its strength on Wednesday helped keep bonds stable despite comments on Tuesday from central bank governor Tito Mboweni backing perceptions there will be another rate hike in June.

The central bank has already raised interest rates by 200 basis points this year, mainly to stem the inflationary impact of the weaker rand, high oil prices and rising food prices.

Yields on the most traded R150 bond due 2005 fell to 11,81%, from a close of 11,85%, while yields on the longer-dated R153 rose three basis points to 11,86%.

South Africa’s Treasury said on Wednesday it had switched R681-million worth two types of government bonds to its longer-dated R186, due 2026, via a switch auction. This was a fraction of the initially offered amount of R6,9-billion. – Reuters