Initial signs are that the New National Party fared better than anticipated in the first few days of floor crossing — particularly in areas outside its traditional Cape strongholds.
Its Western Cape showing is more equivocal, despite the fall of several Democratic Alliance councils to the NNP-African National Congress alliance. By Thursday the DA had lost half the councils it won in the 2000 municipal elections
Significantly, in Bloemfontein, which has 18 seats, the NNP had recaptured all eight of its nominated councillors — plus one former Democratic Party member.
In Limpopo, the NNP reclaimed all four of its Polokwane councillors and all three of its councillors in Thohoyandou. Within hours, it took back half its 12 councillors in Middelburg, Mpumalanga.
Although just 37 of the 248 DA councillors in Gauteng had defected to the NNP by Thursday, this represents almost 70% of 53 NNP-nominated councillors in the province.
Six DA Johannesburg councillors left to join the NNP of the 10 NNP-nominated posts among the 73 DA seats.
The same picture emerges in Pretoria, where eight DA councillors — two-thirds of the NNP-nominated component of 54 DA seats — defected to the NNP. In eKurhuleni on the East Rand the NNP won back six of its eight councillors — and an additional two DA members.
At Kouga in the Eastern Cape, which the DA controlled with an independent, one defection to the NNP swung control. The same applied in Witzenberg (Ceres) and Swellendam.
In other setbacks, the DA lost two councillors to the ANC in Johannesburg and four in Durban.
The NNP’s gains in the Western Cape enabled the NNP-ANC partnership to clinch Cape Town, Paarl, Oudtshoorn and Hermanus.
In 35-seat Stellenbosch the DA was still clinging on with the help of independents.
In addition to losing the directly elected Western Cape councils, it also lost control in four of its five district councils.
However, the NNP’s Western Cape showing looks less impressive when gauged by the scale of defections. Of the 285 councillors nominated by the party for the 2000 municipal election, 82 had returned by Thursday. In the rural hinterland, 54 of 215 NNP members had returned to the fold.
The DA maintains the NNP must be seen to have failed unless all 612 NNP-nominated councillors of the 1 409 DA representatives countrywide cross to it. It said only 130 NNP-nominees had left by Thursday.
But the NNP donned party hats in an atmosphere of schadenfreude to welcome back councillors in what it regards as the first step towards reconstituting the party for the 2004 election.
The defections are expected to peak over the weekend and shortly before the defection period ends at midnight on October 22. The behind-the-scenes scramble for loyalty remains intense.
Amid claims of threats, “chequebook politics” and job offers, the NNP brought out its heavyweights to persuade hesitant councillors, while its national and provincial leaders went on roadshows. The DA introduced loyalty pledges, which backfired in Cape Town when one of the 11 councillors who signed a pledge — and appeared on a newspaper front page doing so — defected to the NNP 12 hours later.
DA leader Tony Leon sent a personal cellular phone message to DA councillors: “The NNP will disappear by 2004. Stand strong.” On Tuesday he publicly thanked Inkatha Freedom Party leader Mangosuthu Buthelezi for a message he sent to all 1 409 DA councillors, apparently forwarded via the DA leader’s office. The “wise words”, as Leon described them, read: “It is utterly wrong for councillors to desert to another political party, Mangosuthu Buthelezi, MP”.
The DA said it was not surprised at the number of councils changing hands: the lack of a 10% threshold ahead of any defections during this first window period was designed to inflict maximum damage on the party.