The veteran leftwinger Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva looks certain to take the Brazilian presidency tomorrow on his fourth attempt, becoming the first working-class leader in the country’s history.
Three weeks after he narrowly failed to win the election outright in the first round, he goes into tomorrow’s runoff with a comfortable lead of about 30 percentage points.
Both of the defeated first round candidates decided to back Lula — as he is universally known — against the government’s centrist candidate Jose Serra, giving the former trade union militant an unassailable advantage.
If he wins tomorrow he will become only the second elected leader to receive the presidential sash from an elected leader in Brazil’s politically turbulent 113-year history as a republic.
It will also be a symbolic victory for the first president with a humble upbringing. Brazil — with a population of 170m and one of the unfairest distributions of wealth in the world — has only ever been led by military officers or graduates. Lula’s education ended at primary level.
The 57-year-old has tapped into a growing tide of frustration with the free-market reforms of President Fernando Henrique Cardoso’s eight years in government, which, although keeping inflation low and encouraging foreign investment, have failed to create the promised social improvements.
High levels of unemployment and crime have led Brazilians to give Lula a chance this time. He was the runner-up in the elections in 1989, 1994 and 1998.
His election in Latin America’s largest country will be the strongest confirmation so far that there is a swing towards candidates opposed to economic neo-liberalism throughout the continent.
Lula and his Workers’ party have gone out of their way to show how they have become more moderate, and they promised to retain the underlying macro-economic orthodoxy of the current government. But fear of the unknown has unsettled investors and Brazil’s currency has lost 40% of its value this year.
A growing number of businessmen are aligning themselves with Lula, believing that he is the candidate most likely to spur growth, stimulate domestic industry, create jobs and defend Brazil’s national interests abroad.
”Brazil has changed, the Workers’ party has changed and I have changed,” he said during the campaign.
More than the result of the election, which barring unforeseen events is seen as a fait accompli, the real interest is in who he will name in his transition team, and how the international markets will react.
With investors fretting about his ability to handle the country’s $260bn public debt, a turbulence-free transition will be crucial to ensure that the first leftwing government for 40 years is not bankrupt before it has begun. – Guardian Unlimited