The Inkatha Freedom Party is likely to dissolve the KwaZulu-Natal legislature before Christmas and call for elections, say senior IFP leaders.
The IFP has the support of the Democratic Alliance and the United Democratic Movement in the legislature, giving it the strength to carry a motion for dissolution.
The three parties are also heading for an electoral alliance.
The IFP and the DA have dismissed warnings by President Thabo Mbeki at the African National Congress conference this week that there is no legislation allowing for a provincial election before 2004. The DA’s KwaZulu-Natal leader, Roger Burrows, stressed that the Constitution gave Premier Lionel Mtshali the necessary powers.
Mtshali suggested on Thursday that the IFP was willing to take the matter to the Constitutional Court.
The Mail & Guardian has learned that in a letter to Mbeki, IFP leader Mangosuthu Buthelezi insisted that his party would not reinstate the two ANC MECs fired from the KwaZulu-Natal coalition government last month.
The letter was delivered to the president at the ANC conference this week.
Party leaders said Buthelezi implied that the IFP was willing to forfeit its three posts in the national Cabinet. He had told Mbeki the IFP was prepared to work with the ANC — “even if the IFP is out of government”.
It is understood that the IFP chief whip in the KwaZulu-Natal legislature, Nkosi Gumede, with those of the DA and the UDM, were tracking down members of the provincial legislature to ensure their presence in the legislature to vote on the motion to dissolve.
“We will bring in the members in wheelchairs if we have to. We are determined to press ahead as soon as possible,” said an IFP leader.
IFP spokesperson Musa Zondi said it was the prerogative of Mtshali, the speaker and the legislature whips to determine the next sitting of the House.
The African Christian Democratic Party, which has one seat, has not indicated how it will vote.
The IFP has 34 seats, the DA seven and the UDM one, together representing 53%. Against this the ANC can muster its own 32 seats and two each belonging to the New National Party and the Minority Front.
The move to dissolve the legislature follows attempts by the ANC to gain majority control of the province with the help of the defection legislation, which threatens the IFP’s survival.
When the legislation was introduced earlier this year, two members each from the IFP and the DA and one from the UDM defected to the ANC, giving it the required majority to form a government on its own. The legislation was thrown out by the Constitutional Court on technical grounds.
However, an amended Bill is to be tabled in Parliament next month — which explains why the IFP is moving so swiftly on a provincial election.
The IFP intends to keep the defection legislation embroiled in legal battles in the Constitutional Court.
Said Zondi: “We will use every avenue to fight the legislation.”
Mbeki told the press this week that “we have not considered” Buthelezi’s letter. Insiders suggest he decided not to unveil its contents to the ANC conference for fear that delegates would call for Inkatha’s expulsion from the national government.
It is believed ANC leaders would prefer that the IFP remain in the government, to prevent it from becoming a vociferous opponent. Mbeki is understood to have begged Buthelezi to take the party’s stance to its general council for reconsideration and to inform him of its decision before the ANC conference started.
Some commentators believe the IFP might bolster its support through an early provincial poll.
According to a poll by the Institute for Democracy in South Africa (Idasa), ANC support in KwaZulu-Natal has dropped to 21% from about 30% in the 1999 elections, with 27% of voters indicating that they would not vote at all.
The Idasa survey also indicated that IFP support had dropped to 10% in the province. However, past surveys have consistently underestimated the party’s following.