Once again that old player, Zimbabwe President Robert Mugabe, was rubbing his hands in glee this week as his opponents wrung theirs in frustration.
The prospect — raised in a report in the usually reliable Times of London — of Mugabe riding off into the sunset and leaving his benighted country in the hands of a government of national unity appeared to have evaporated like the mist off the Victoria Falls.
Mugabe insisted he wasn’t going anywhere.
“Only a few months ago, the people elected me to serve them and it will be absolutely counter-revolutionary and foolhardy for me to step down,” he said, as he attended a ceremony to honour the founding president of Zambia, Kenneth Kaunda, for his role in the liberation struggle against British rule.
“I am not used to answering questions about nightmares which are dreamt in Britain at Number 10 Downing Street,” said Mugabe, taking his now habitual swipe at British Prime Minister Tony Blair.
Both government and the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) quickly outlined the reported elements of the deal: amnesty and exile for Mugabe and his cronies, and a piece of the political pie for Morgan Tsvangirai, leader of the MDC.
None deny, however, that an approach was made to Tsvangirai by retired soldier Colonel Lionel Dyke on behalf of parliamentary Speaker Emmerson Mnangagwa and Zimbabwe Defence Force head General Vitalis Zvinavashe.
The story broke when Tsvangirai admitted as much.
“This was not very shrewd of him,” notes Ross Herbert, a researcher with the South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA). “It sent the message to Mugabe before any real plan could be launched.”
The disclosure is intensely embarrassing to the MDC, which cannot afford to be seen to be embarking on extra-democratic shenanigans. Worse, it has played into Mugabe’s hands.
It remains entirely possible that Mugabe hatched the whole scheme.
“He is a past master of saying one thing and doing another as he showed in his dealing with the apartheid regime,” said SAIIA deputy chairperson Moeletsi Mbeki.
“Zimbabwe is facing meltdown. The pressure is on the elite in that country to avert the looming crisis.
“Neither Mnangagwa nor Zvinavashe were part of the ruling clan within the Shona tribe,” said Mbeki. Thus both were easily sacrificed.
Mnangagwa in particular was at Mugabe’s behest, having humiliatingly lost his seat last year to an MDC candidate who was in hiding.
Mugabe would be looking to emasculate the MDC by making it a junior partner in the government — much as he did to Joshua Nkomo’s Zapu.
The immediate benefit of creating a belief that he was on the way out would be the easing of pressure on the cricket World Cup fixture in Harare.
More importantly, it would soften any resolve the Commonwealth troika of South Africa, Nigeria and Australia might have to take further punitive action against Zimbabwe when they met to review developments in March.
Australia’s Prime Minister John Howard has made it clear he wants to move beyond the suspension currently slapped on Zimbabwe. South Africa and Nigeria remain circumspect.
Cricket delivered its gift to Mugabe with the statements by the England authority confirming that its team resist government pressure and go to Harare next month. Australia followed suit on Wednesday.
The only thing that would stop this is a clear and present threat of violence that would compromise the safety of the players and officials.
Harare Mayor Elias Mudzuri, an MDC member, has said he cannot guarantee the safety of participants.
Mugabe’s men will not hesitate to use tough measures. Mudzuri was held earlier this week for participating in an unapproved political demonstration that the mayor insisted was merely a civic event.
Mugabe got moral support from South African Minister of Sport and Recreation Ngconde Balfour, himself a beneficiary of the anti-apartheid sports campaign, who now insists that sport should not be mixed with politics.
The MDC has a poor record of taking things to the streets.
It adopted non-confrontational tactics following the stolen elections last year — ignoring calls to demonstrate against the malpractice.
Information Minister Jonathan Moyo kept Zimbabwe in the South African headlines by showing that Mugabe’s Cabinet ministers now have to come to South Africa to do their grocery shopping.
“What happens when the army and police decide that they are no longer prepared to face the queues and shortages?” asked Herbert.