The final four: will Australia come undone?

Unpredictable as this world cup has been there’s always been one predictable factor, right from the start: Aussie are playing in the final, and are overwhelming favourites to win. The question the whole tournament has been: who will be there with them in Johannesburg this Sunday, and can that side topple them?

That task is up to one of three teams now, as the semifinalists gear up for the two big games this week. Australia, India, Kenya and Sri Lanka — I sure as hell didn’t pick those four before the tournament began, and if you claim you did then you’re a bigger liar than Bill Clinton. Kenya, of course, was the problem for pundits, as nobody in their wildest dreams could have predicted their meteoric rise to stardom. The bookies, of course, must be absolutely delighted.

Today I’m going to take a look at The Final Four, and make my second-last prediction of the tournament. Here’s how the sides facing each other in the semis stack up, starting with the first semifinal between Australia and Sri Lanka.

Semifinal One: Australia vs Sri Lanka (Tuesday 18/03, Port Elizabeth, Day)

I have said so much about Australia during the course of this world cup it almost seems pointless analysing their strengths and weaknesses. They’ve won all their games, and are likely to win their last two as well, but there are still — after all this time — some interesting points to note.

Their game against Kenya on Saturday was most revealing, as it showed a lot of frustration. They haven’t had much in the way of quality opposition this World Cup, and nearly all their victories have been without breaking a sweat. The Aussies are at their best when someone is coming at them hard, as it brings out their competitive spirit. We all know the Aussie phenomenon of losing their last game of a series they have already won, and it points to the same thing: Aussie likes a good fight, and if there isn’t one to be had they usually perform below their best.

Which can be their undoing, if nothing else will be.

They failed to bowl Kenya out in 50 overs, with Kenya getting 174/8, and it must be said that for Kenya to last a full fifty overs against the best side in the world is once again indicative of the fact that they have earned their semifinal spot. They are the weakest side of the four, but they are no longer the pushovers of old, and despite losing (inevitably) to Australia, they gave them a bit of a skrik, make no mistake.

They took five Aussie wickets, having batted their full 50, and this is testament to two things: Kenya are a very different side to the one so underrated at the start of the competition, and Australia have an Achilles heel against sides they believe they are far superior to.

Which begs the question: how will they take to the field against Sri Lanka in their crucial semifinal? It will be the first true knockout game of the competition, so you would have to assume they will not take the Sri Lankans lightly. The game will be on a pitch which has proved disastrous to sides batting second this, and which offers plenty for the slow bowlers and turners, with which Sri Lanka is well-stocked.

The Kenyans provided some insight into what gets the Aussie batsmen going — they don’t like slow bowling. The Kenyans were all bowling in the 120 km/h zone, and their spinners (in particular the exceptional leggie Collins Obuya) turned the ball dramatically. The Aussie batsmen appeared to be frustrated by the ball not coming on to the bat as they are used to from sides with more pace, and as such a number of them forced shots which saw them get out.

Sri Lanka have the right sort of pace that Australia will be looking for, but they also have two of the best bowlers of the tournament in Chaminda Vaas and Muttiah Muralitharan. Between them the pair have taken 37 wickets at a combined average of 15,86 and with an economy rate of 3,77, and Vaas has already equalled the world cup record for most wickets in a tournament (20 — held by Geoff Allott and Shane Warne).

Not bad going. But the problem for Sri Lanka is that the rest of their bowlers have been nothing short of bad, despite one or two games in which the slow bowlers all shared some wickets against incompetents like South Africa.

Australia’s bowlers, on the other hand, have been absolutely devastating.

Their worst bowler is Brad Hogg, with the ridiculously bad average of 23,10. So bad, in fact, it’s better than Shaun Pollock’s career average. Terrible. He ought to be ashamed for letting his side down so badly. McGrath and Bichel have the two best bowling figures of the tournament, while the ”back-up” bowlers have been better than most sides’ strike bowlers, so it’s very much a case of whatever Sri Lanka can do we can do — only much, much better.

And we haven’t even touched on the batting yet. The Sri Lankan batsmen in total have scored 1 552 runs between them, at a combined average per player of 27,23. The Aussie batsmen have scored 1 937 runs between them, at a team average of 41.21. There is something interesting to note: the difference between the two sets of opening batsmen. For Sri Lanka Atapattu and Jayasuriya have put on a combined total of 672 runs, at an average of 51.69, while Gilchrist and Hayden have managed 602 runs at an average of 40.13.

The weak link in all this has been Hayden, a rare and bizarre fact. He hasn’t really been on fire this World Cup, although to be fair he hasn’t needed to be with his mates clobbering it everywhere around him, but in being the weak link he offers an opportunity that the Sri Lankans have to take if they are to upset the Aussies. Because if they get Hayden early, and are lucky enough to get Gilchrist as well, the pressure will be firmly on the Aussies, with the promise of Atapattu and Jayasuriya to come.

We all know that Sri Lanka can be devastating on their day, so I guess it just comes down to whether they will be or not. Which is the bizarre thing about cricket — Australia have dominated this tournament, the only team to have won every game they have played, and they are clearly the best side in the world. But on a hot day in PE it could all come crashing down for them should the Lankans fire, and they would be out of the tournament.

There’s something not quite right about that. And I can promise you that should they inexplicably lose there will be hell to pay for not having a best-of-three semifinal and final.

But I doubt they’ll lose. It’s not their style.

Cheers,

The Twelfth Man