A respected university research outfit has cast grave doubt on President Thabo Mbeki’s 2005 deadline for the finalisation of the land restitution process, insisting that more than 11 000 rural land claims remain unsettled.
The University of the Western Cape’s Programme for Land and Agrarian Studies (Plaas) estimates that resolving half the outstanding rural claims will cost the government about R10-billion.
The total restitution budget for 2003/04 is R855-million, rising to just over R1-billion in two years’ time.
In an in-depth report on land reform, Plaas researcher Ruth Hall says that of a total of 36 488 claims resolved by March this year she has identified only 184 rural claims settled with land.
The figure was arrived at by investigating the project lists of regional land claims commissions and by interviewing their staff.
The implication, Hall says, is that the bulk of rural claims, more than 11 500, remain outstanding.
Hall’s research raises large questions about the official statistics on land restitution. The Commission on the Restitution of Land Rights announced in November last year that 10 836 rural claims had been settled, but has since amended the figure to 4 715 — 80% settled with land transfers.
Because they frequently involve competing demands on unsurveyed land, rural claims are notoriously complex, time-consuming and costly to unravel. The average rural claim costs R250 000 to dispose of, as compared with R40 000 in urban areas, according to the commission.
Assuming the correctness of these figures, Hall says it will cost the government R2,886-billion to meet rural claims, and a further R1-billion to meet the 25 000 outstanding in the towns and cities.
But she points out that the actual cost to date has been far higher — a staggering R1,7-million on each rural claim settled with land. Reliance on negotiated sales had hampered the disposal of rural claims, as the commission’s ability to acquire land hinged on the willingness of owners to sell at prices the state would accept.
A proposed amendment to the Restitution of Land Rights Act, however, strengthened the government’s power to expropriate, and was expected to accelerate rural restitution.
”In future, some rural claims might be settled more cheaply with cash compensation, but settling just half of the 11 547 rural claims would cost in the region of R10-billion,” Hall says.
She adds that it is ”highly unlikely” that Mbeki’s 2005 deadline for the settlement of all claims, announced in the State of the Nation address last year, can be met.
The commission’s national communications officer, Hilgard Matthews, said the its ”projections and activities were still geared” to Mbeki’s deadline. He declined to speculate on whether the target would in fact be met.
More staff would be appointed over the next two months to strengthen the commission’s capacity, Matthews said.