/ 30 October 2003

SA land freight volumes dip

The total volume of goods transported in South Africa during August 2003 slipped by 1,0% y/y to 61 196-million tons after easing back to July’s 2,5% y/y increase of

60 489-million tons, Statistics South Africa said on Thursday.

The record monthly volume transported was 62 921-million tons set in October 2002.

The August decline was due to a drop of 1,3% y/y to 45 851-million tons and no y/y change to 15 341-million tons recorded by private sector enterprises and Transnet respectively.

The July increase was due to rises of 4,0% y/y to 45 026-million tons and a 1,5% y/y drop to 15 463-million tons recorded by private sector enterprises and Transnet respectively.

The June surge was due to rises of 5,2% y/y to 41 373-million tons and 7,6% y/y to 15 887-million tons recorded by private sector enterprises and Transnet respectively.

The June surge reflected the restocking of inventories by retailers in anticipation of a buoyant second half, as real personal disposable income doubles from last year’s 3,5% increase due to lower inflation and tax cuts, while nominal wage increases remain at the 10% level. Real wholesale trade sales in South Africa surged by 7,6% y/y in June 2003.

This was then reflected in a 5,8% y/y surge in real retail sales in July. The total volume of goods transported during the first half of 2003 only increased by 3,4% y/y. This increase was due to increases of 3,8% y/y and 2,3% y/y reported by private sector enterprises and Transnet respectively.

The total distance traveled by private sector enterprises during August 2003 increased by 1,7% compared with August 2002. Furthermore, the total gross transport income of private sector enterprises during August 2003 increased by 12,% compared with August 2002.

The total distance traveled by private sector enterprises during July 2003 increased by 1,1% compared with July 2002. Furthermore, the total gross transport income of private sector enterprises during July 2003 increased by 13,6% compared with July 2002.

The total distance traveled by private sector enterprises during June 2003 increased by 1,0% (+1,8 million kilometres) compared with June 2002.

The total gross transport income of private sector enterprises during June 2003 increased by 15,1% y/y.

The total distance traveled by private sector enterprises during May 2003 increased by 0,5% (+0,9-million kilometres) compared with May 2002.

Furthermore, the total gross transport income of private sector enterprises during May 2003 increased by 10,3% y/y compared with May 2002.

The South African government said in July it would be holding discussions with transport parastatal Transnet to improve the efficiency of its general freight business.

In a statement after President Thabo Mbeki reported back on his cabinet policy review meeting, the cabinet noted that to spur economic growth additional resources would have to be provided to Transnet “immediately” to improve the rail network, particularly with regard to locomotives, rolling stock and infrastructure.

With regard to freight, it noted that prices, efficiency of the business and the acquisition of additional expertise would be discussed with Transnet “as a matter of urgency”.

It noted that additional resources would be mobilised to ease congestion at the Durban, Cape Town and Port Elizabeth container terminals and special measures would be put in place to improve efficiencies including communication among stakeholders.

The South African economy has officially been in an “upward” phase since September 1999 and in May 2003 exceeded the previous record upward phase, which lasted from September 1961 to April 1965.

Total GDP at constant 1995 prices rose by 1,1% q/q seasonally adjusted and annualised in the second quarter 2003. This was the fourth consecutive slowdown in the quarterly growth rate from 1,5% in the first quarter 2003, 2,4% in the fourth quarter 2002, 2,9% in the third quarter 2002 and a recent peak of 3,8% in the second quarter 2002.

Most economists expect a recovery in the quarterly growth rate in the second half of this year, as a global economic recovery takes place after the Iraqi invasion and the ravages of Sars, while South African domestic demand will be boosted by the interest rate cuts implemented in June, August, September and October. – I-Net Bridge