Clearly New Zealand and France are headed for the World Cup final on November 22. It is written in the stars, for the stars, by the stars.
Australia and England, whose stars are falling fast, will have to scrabble about in one of those awful third/fourth play-off games on the Thursday before the final.
It makes our current flight to Sydney from sunny Brisbane seem almost pointless.
It would be nice to come up with a couple of coherent arguments against this gloomy forecast. But we cannot resort to delusion.
Australia in particular seem to have accepted the inevitability of defeat at Sydney’s Olympic Stadium in Saturday’s first semi-final.
They know New Zealand, with their solid pack and devastating backs, will find the holes Scotland weren’t quite able to exploit in their brave 33-16 quarter-final defeat.
The Wallabies were lamentable in the first half of that game last Saturday, turning around at 9-9 with a little help from awful Kiwi ref Steve Walsh.
And the Scots point to the use of decoy runners and Phil Waugh’s illegal hands as factors in their second half collapse.
All Aussie experts accept their Wallabies are wobbling. Legendary scrum-half Nick -Farr Jones says: “It’s time to accept critisism,” while columnist Peter Jenkins argues that only the injured flanker George Smith would challenge for a place in a trans-Tasman XV with the All Blacks.
There appears to be a general acceptance that half-backs George Gregan and Steve Larkham are past it while the Rugby League trio of Lote Tuqiri, Wendell Sailor and Mat Rogers are roundly written off.
One columnist lists a few blood-and-guts suggestions as to how to beat the All Blacks before resorting to: “Failing all else, buy a prayer mat for the coach and a gold Rolex for the referee.”
Even South African captain Corne Krige, after his side’s 29-9 quarter-final defeat at the hands of the Kiwis in Melbourne on Saturday night, advised the Wobblies on live television: “Give it up.”
England? Unlike Australia they came in to this tournament on the crest of a wave. Ranked No 1 in all credible ranking lists, they have beaten all three of the other semi-finalists in their most recent clashes this year.
Unlike Australia there is no general acceptance of defeat against France in Sydney on Sunday. That’s because, while the All Blacks have dominated the Bledisloe Cup recently, England are Grand Slammers right now – though all the evidence suggests France have hit a purple patch while England are on the decline at this tournament.
The French were comfortably the most impressive of the quarter-final winners over the weekend. Their 43-21 win over Ireland was almost too impressive. Eight minutes in to the second half they were 37-0 and four tries up.
Sure, they eased off and the Irish pulled back three tries of their own. But as the departing Keith Wood confessed: “We had no answers until it was too late.”
Contrast that with England’s lamentable effort in the 28-17 win over Wales, where they were outscored by three tries to one. Even Clive Woodward, master of the fudge, admitted: “If we play like that against the French we’ve got no chance.”
This was an old-school England wing, fashioned by Wilko’s boot and Mike Catt’s nouse.
As Woodward finally put it: “We are getting through on sheer bloody-mindedness.”
Just like Australia really. While the Wallabies struggled against Ireland and Scotland, England have been pushed to the limit by South Africa, Samoa and Wales.
But while Australia came in to this tournament searching for that missing something, England were already there… now both sides are lacking in form and confidence.
The only possible consolation for England? The arrival of Austin Healey from Leicester this week.
Woodward bizarrely denied all knowledge of the versatile back’s impending trip at the post-Wales press conference.
He claimed the reports were a figment of Healey’s self-publicity machine and generally rubbished the very suggestion that Healey, rejected at the last hurdle for the returning Mike Catt, would be needed.
But with Josh Lewsey and Iain Balshaw injured and Dan Luger strangely out of sorts, back-up has now been called for. Or did we make that up, Clive?
Healey’s cheeky-chappie, have-a-go, in-yer-face mentality might be just what England’s over-prepared, over-fussy, over-hyped squad needs. Jonny Wilkinson, sitting at the England table last night with huge bags under his eyes and a haunted expression on his face, needs somebody to take the mickey out of him.
Captain Martin Johnson could do with a little lightening up orchestrated by his long-time clubmate and let’s be honest, Healey could do a better job out on the park than many of our current backs.
Matt Dawson and Kyran Bracken are still looking hesitant behind the scrum, Mike Tindall and Will Greenwood, given a fierce hit on Sunday night, don’t look like a World Cup winning centre partnership. As for Ben Cohen on the wing, what’s happened to the world’s greatest finisher?
Truth is, only Mike Catt (an inspirational pick from Woodward given his post-half-time impact against the Welsh) and Jason Robinson (who turned the match with his second-half break past five Welshmen to set up Greenwood for the only try) have done enough to merit automatic selection this week.
France must be laughing. And much as I wish he could, I can’t see Healey turning it all around.
But as Woodward said in that mean, moody appearance after the Wales game: “If you want to put your money on France, go ahead. They’ve looked the form side so far. The red hot favourites. But they haven’t played England yet.”