The battle for the heart of the official opposition Democratic Alliance has begun with old National Party adherents, old Democratic Party followers, and former coloured Labour Party interests fighting it out for key positions on the Western Cape provincial lists for the legislature and Parliament.
It promises to be bruising battle as it is the only province where the DA has a chance of winning — or getting anywhere near to winning — the most seats in a 42-seat legislature or the most seats from the Western Cape represented in the National Assembly when elections are held next year. The party is counting on at least 16 seats in the legislature and possibly 15 in the National Assembly from the Western Cape.
The Democratic Party faction appears to have won the first round — getting at least 15 of the 30 candidates from the Cape Town Metropole — at this stage alphabetical — shortlist for both the Assembly and the legislature respectively. The NP and Labour factions dominate the smaller eastern and western regional shortlists. These will be collated into a ”ranked” list in January next year by a provincial electoral college (PEC).
The DP group in the metro is represented by former provincial education minister Helen Zille, former African National Congress George mayor and now national MP Sydney Oppermann, businessman and provincial vice-chairperson Tony da Silva and former Cape Town Deputy Mayor Belinda Walker. All these look set to go to parliament from the metro region.
Competing is the ”Morkel” group — including provincial leader Theuns Botha — which broadly backs former NNP Premier Gerald Morkel which has the support of a substantial section of the ”coloured” and old Labour Party caucus of the party.
Botha is automatically top of the provincial list and will be the party’s premier candidate. Morkel looks set to remain a city councillor as his name did not go forward for the metro lists for the legislature. His ally, former Cape Town city councillor Speaker Danny de La Cruz, however, is on the metro list for the province. His allies are Kenny Lategan, a metro councillor, who is also on the metro alphabetical list. Only about six of the 30 from the metro fall into the Morkel camp.
How the dice will fall in January could depend on the white former New National Party members — many of whom crossed to the DA during the walkover period in April this year — and the smaller coloured grouping which may not back the Morkel camp.
The DP group has won a preponderance of support in the electoral college, possibly not an overall majority but it dominates the executive committee. Metropolitan area coordinator John Oxley is widely expected to guide the January process.
The Cape Town area — and which represents 70% of electoral support for the DA in the Western Cape — is represented by a nail-biting 50 of the 100 seats on the PEC. The other, more conservative areas, have 25 seats each. The DP group considered to have a strong chance of making it to Parliament include Sea Point councillor JP Smith, veteran MP Dene Smuts, Walker, Zille and de Silva.
There are only about six from the metropolitan area who clearly fall into the old NNP camp — businesswoman Ursula Johnson, Craig Morkel (a national MP and son of Gerald Morkel), Sakkie Pretorius, Charles Redcliffe — who crossed over from the New National Party in April — and councillor James Vos, a former NP youth leader. They too could make it to parliament.
In the other two regions the NP/Labour Party faction predominate. They make up all eight from the Western region, including sitting provincial MP Alta Roussouw and former minister in the Morkel provincial government Dr Audrey van Zyl.
All but two — provincial MP Alan Winde and Oppermann — of the 11 candidates for the province from the Eastern region appear to be from the Labour Party/NP tradition. Other more conservative candidates are George Mayor Marius Swart, as well as former NNP povincial MPL Michael de Villiers and former Agriculture MEC Gerrit van Rensburg, who both crossed the floor from the NNP in April. – I-Net Bridge