The next Cabinet should include many new faces, despite President Thabo Mbeki’s often conservative approach to reshuffles, political analysts predicted this week.
They forecast a big migration from the provinces, with Limpopo Premier Ngoako Ramatlhodi leading the way.
Dr Dirk Kotze of the University of South Africa and Witwatersrand University’s political science Professor Tom Lodge agree that Ramatlhodi is a bright new star on the horizon.
”He was a former administrative secretary for Oliver Tambo in Lusaka and has also previously worked with President Thabo Mbeki. He seems well liked,” Kotze says.
The analysts think it likely that Northern Cape Premier Manne Dipico, currently African National Congress election manager, and North West Premier Popo Molefe will move up the political ladder.
Kotze believes Dipico may be heading for national government.
Kotze says there could be as many as eight vacancies created by departing ministers.
”There is much speculation that Inkatha Freedom Party leader and Foreign Affairs Minister Mangosuthu Buthelezi and Correctional Services Minister Ben Skosana, also of the IFP, won’t be around in the new Cabinet,” he says.
The other IFP-affiliated minister, Ben Ngubane, has left to become ambassador of Japan.
Ministers Penuell Maduna (justice and constitutional development) and Valli Moosa (environmental affairs and tourism) have already indicated they are leaving.
Kotze thinks it likely that Education Minister Kader Asmal and Transport Minister Dullah Omar, both fighting cancer, may decide to retire.
”It is also my belief that Public Works Minister Stella Sigcau will be moved due to poor performance,” he said.
Lodge also believes Buthelezi may not feature in the next Cabinet.
He expresses concern that Finance Minister Trevor Manuel will not make himself available for the post again.
”He has been hinting that he might not be around.”
If Manuel leaves, his position will probably be taken up by Intelligence Minister Lindiwe Sisulu, Lodge said.
Concerning the broader political landscape, analyst believe there will be significant changes in the political profile of provinces. They predict the end of the road for at least two political parties.
”Both the New National Party and the United Democratic Movement are expected to wither and die,” says Theo Bekker, of the Pretoria University’s political science department.
Bekker, Lodge and Kotze agree the ANC is likely to take over the Western Cape from Marthinus van Schalkwyk’s New National Party, in which case he will be made a minister for ”good behaviour”.
Bekker also predicts the end of the IFP’s dominance in KwaZulu-Natal.
Political commentator Professor Willem Kleynhans says that for the IFP to survive it has to strengthen its alliance with the Democratic Alliance.
”In fact I believe the UDM, IFP and DA should form one party. Only then will it carry the weight to be an effective opposition party,” Kleynhans says.
Bekker believes Patricia de Lille’s new Independent Democrats (ID) will be interesting to watch.
”I can see them getting a few sympathy votes from some people who would otherwise have supported the UDM or the DA.”
If De Lille’s claims are true that her party has 60 000 loyal voters, she will definitely give DA leader Tony Leon ”a run for his money”, Bekker says.
He believes the ID will replace the UDM in the standings. — Sapa