South Africa’s current 2003/04 commercial maize crop is likely to be 7,305-millions tons, Johan van den Berg from agro-meteorological consultancy Enviro Vision said on Friday.
Enviro Vision’s latest estimate for the maize crop is 40 000 tons higher than the consultancy’s previous forecast of 7,265-million tons made in early March.
The consultancy’s forecast is also 281 000 tons less than the Crop Estimates Committee’s April estimate of 7,586-million tons.
“According to our models, we are currently forecasting a lower crop than the Crop Estimates Committee. However, it is difficult to know, at this stage, who is right — until the harvest comes in,” Van den Berg added.
Indications are that there could be an El Nino event in the 2004/05 coming season, he said.
Both the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the European Centre for Medium Term Weather Forecasts are predicting the development of an El Nino, Van den Berg added.
“The NOAA has been forecasting, from November 2003, that an El Nino will develop in June or July this year. On the other hand, the European Centre for Medium Term Weather Forecasts is predicting either neutral conditions or an El Nino event,” he said.
“There is, thus, some consensus about the development of an El Nino,” Van den Berg added.
However, recent rain in South Africa’s maize belt means that the coming 2004/05 season will start with good sub-soil moisture, he said. – I-Net Bridge