/ 30 June 2004

South African May trade data released

South Africa recorded a trade deficit of R76,4-million for its trade with non-Southern African Customs Union trading partners in May from a surprise R3,121-billion deficit in April following a R2,085-billion surplus in March, according to the latest customs and excise figures released on Wednesday.

The median forecast was for a R1,5-billion surplus with a range from a surplus of R400-million to R4-billion. In May 2003 the surplus was R3,168-billion.

Five aircraft worth R3,434-billion were included in the April imports.

Mike Schussler, economist at T-Sec, said: “This is a disappointing figure and it certainly won’t be good for the bond market or the rand. It also shows that we are now heading for a deficit season and we can expect a much bigger current account deficit.”

John Loos, economist at Absa, commented: “There is little that one can read into the trade data on a month-by-month basis. I see the foreign trade number ending in a surplus this year, but lower than last year’s surplus, due to the stronger rand.” — I-Net Bridge