Nine municipal by-elections will take place in South Africa this Wednesday, but the ruling African National Congress (ANC) has already won another five wards uncontested. Trends indicate that the ANC could win all but two of the contested by-elections.
The uncontested wards include those in Peddie, Cradock (both in the Eastern Cape), Burgersfort/Ohrigstad/Eastern Tubatse as well as Umjindi (Barberton) municipality ward two in Mpumalanga, and Kamiesberg/Garies in the Northern Cape.
A key contested by-election is taking place in Umtata, the heartland of former Transkei military leader General Bantu Holomisa’s United Democratic Movement (UDM). Following a recent run of by-elections in the Eastern Cape municipality of King Sabata Dalindyebo, which includes the former Transkei homeland capital of Umtata where the UDM recently lost four by-elections and lost control of the municipality, it now faces a fifth by-election in the town’s ward 22.
Last time — in the 2000 general municipal election — the UDM won a comfortable majority of 1 279 votes to the African National Congress’ 695 votes in this area.
However, the ANC pulled off runaway victories in the other four seats vacated by UDM councillors — most of which were not deemed marginal. An ANC victory in this seat now appears likely against a UDM candidate as well as a Pan Africanist Congress candidate.
In a second marginal seat, the official opposition Democratic Alliance (DA) is defending ward 46 in Ekurhuleni (Gauteng’s East Rand) which it won with 2 886 votes to the ANC’s 1 429 votes. The DA councillor has resigned but the ward could be tough for the official opposition, as last time an East Rand Forum candidate polled a strong 22,9% or 1 429 votes.
This time the forum is not fielding a candidate and the entry of a Freedom Front Plus candidate may split the core white constituency which has in recent years backed the DA. The ANC could, thus, snatch the seat where there is a strong black constituency.
Meanwhile the UDM is contesting ward four in Umzimkulu where in 2000, the ANC gained 1 562 votes to the UDM’s 91 votes. It looks like a sure bet for the ANC.
In Siyathemba municipality (Prieska) in the Northern Cape, the resignation of the independent councillor has led to a by-election; this is a seat won in 2000 by the DA with 735 votes to the ANC’s 602 votes. An ANC victory in a province where the political pendulum is swinging in that direction is a possibility. This time the African Christian Democratic Party (ACDP) is standing — which could complicate matters for the DA which hopes to recapture the ward. This is also a marginal seat.
In Breede Valley (Worcester) municipality ward 10 in the Western Cape, the DA is not standing in a seat it won in 2000 with 738 votes to the ANC’s 604 votes. The ANC looks likely to snatch the seat as it faces two independent candidates and the ANC is in the ascendancy in Western Cape rural areas. It was a marginal seat.
In ward 10 of the Breede River/Winelands municipality also in the Western Cape, the African National Congress is looking to retain its seat against a candidate from Patricia de Lille’s Independent Democrats (ID). The ANC won the seat with just 643 votes to the DA’s 597 votes. The DA is not standing in this seat this time. It is also a marginal seat and is likely to be retained by the ANC.
A sixth marginal ward is in Somerset East, also in the Eastern Cape. The ANC is defending a marginal seat vacated by its councillor in the Blue Crane Route municipality in ward two against the DA. The ANC won this seat in 2000 with just 847 votes to the DA’s 838 votes. Recent improved performances by the ANC in the Eastern Cape could put the seat back in its hands. The DA is contesting this seat.
The other two contested seats — in KwaZulu Natal — are likely to be safe bets for the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP).
In Umhlabuyalingana municipality, the IFP looks set to retain its seat having gained it in 2000 with 988 votes to the ANC’s 185 votes. It is being contested by the ANC.
In the other KwaZulu-Natal by-election to be fought in the Big Five False Bay/Hluhluwe municipality, the IFP will be defending ward two where it received a comfortable 1 275 votes last time to the ANC’s 616 votes. The IFP looks likely to retain the seat against an ANC candidate.
The five uncontested seats are Kamiesberg (Garies) municipality’s ward three in the Northern Cape, Inxuba Yethemba/Cradock municipality’s ward one,
Peddie’s ward 11 and ward seven of the Greater Tubatse municipality in Mpumalanga as well as Umjindi in Barberton which is also situated in Mpumalanga.
In Kamiesberg the ANC won a strong majority of 714 votes to the DA’s 265 votes in 2000.
In Peddie, also in the Eastern Cape, the resignation of the ANC councillor has forced a by-election in ward 11.
In Inxuba Yethemba/Cradock municipality in the Eastern Cape, the ANC councillor in ward one resigned. He won the seat in 2000 gaining 1 703 votes to the DA’s 302 votes. The DA is not standing this time.
In ward seven of the Greater Tubatse municipality in Mpumalanga, the ANC was also unopposed in 2000.
In Umjindi (Barberton) municipality ward two, the ANC councillor died and it is now not opposed in a seat where it obtained 981 votes to the DA’s 122 votes in 2000. – I-Net Bridge