When 13 presidents and the United Nations secretary general combine their energy to deliberate on an issue they are simply not allowed to fail — particularly if their meeting is extended by 24 hours.
So the deal on Côte d’Ivoire wrung out of the Accra summit last Friday bears close scrutiny. In essence, the former rebels and opposition figures in what was once the post-colonial showpiece of West Africa have agreed to rejoin the government of President Laurent Gbagbo.
The rebels still controlling the north of the country must start disarming by October. This will make it 21 months after the signing of the Linas-Marcoussis deal designed to attend to exactly this and other eventualities.
For his part Gbagbo has been pushed to settle key issues such as the law on citizenship and who is eligible to become president. Up to now he has used the logjam these created to hold up the implementation of the peace process.
The foot-dragging has been at best frustrating and at worst lethal as opponents demonstrating against the delays were shot.
France, which has 4 000 peacekeepers in Côte d’Ivoire along with the 6 000 United Nations troops, has made no secret of its impatience with Gbagbo.
Gabon President Omar Bongo, acting on instructions from Paris, berated the Ivorean president at the African Union summit in Addis Ababa last month.
UN Secretary General Kofi Annan made veiled threats in Accra that Côte d’Ivoire could face sanctions if the warring parties do not adhere to this agreement.
Observers believe that it will take more robust pressure to make ‘the son of Linas-Marcoussis†work. Gbagbo has proved to be a past master in obfuscation and obstruction.
He will apply all his skills to keeping his major opponent, Alassane Outtara, from contesting the presidential elections.
But if the ‘who is and who is not an Ivorean†dispute is settled to Outtara’s advantage, the pretext for keeping him out of the pool of candidates because of his alleged Burkinabe and Malian heritage will disappear. Gbagbo is unlikely to let this go without a fight.
The region is relying heavily on Angola to persuade Gbagbo to do the right thing.
Angolan Prime Minister Fernando Dias dos Santos was in Abidjan immediately after the summit, where he advised the Ivorean leader to take a ‘smart and constructive attitude†to the negotiating process.
Gbagbo is understood to lay great store by the Angolan experience in ending a long and exhausting civil war.
It is exactly this that the region seeks to avoid in what was once the world’s largest cocoa producer.
It was believed that if the violence that broke out in September 2002 could be swiftly contained, Côte d’Ivoire could avoid sliding into the endemic chaos and misery of all too many West African states.
The grim discovery this week of three mass graves containing 99 bodies in the northern town of Korhogo — where rival rebel groups were fighting two months ago — illustrates yet again that for Ivoreans violence and the horror of war are becoming dangerously commonplace.