The death of the New National Party has predictably elicited different interpretations from political parties and bodies of what this development means for South African politics.
The reactions range from approval by the African National Congress and grudging acceptance from the Congress of South African Trade Unions (Cosatu) and the South African Communist Party (SACP) to downright derision from most opposition parties, especially the Democratic Alliance.
It is definitely an important issue for both the ANC and DA, but indications are that they are somehow seriously downplaying the issue — unwittingly or consciously.
This is especially so because the death of the NNP will have significant and far-reaching consequences in reshaping the political landscape of South Africa in ways that are not immediately apparent.
The ANC has been vindicated in its long struggle against the racist views that were associated with the NNP. For the DA, the announcement has confirmed its long-held assertion of fears of capitulation and betrayal by the NNP to the might of the ANC.
Without going into the merits or demerits of these positions, and there is a lot of credence and flaws in each view, they are largely simplistic analyses because what lies in store for these parties is much more profound. And how they respond will define their position in South African politics.
Essentially, the disappearance of the NNP will put both of them under intense pressure in ways that they have yet to realise. It will force them to overcome their mutual hostility and hopefully forge an environment that will benefit South African society.
For the DA, it must be noted that it is responsible for delivering the decisive blow that killed the NNP in the 1999 election when it effectively stole its core supporters. Thus, what the ANC is inheriting is a corpse of the NNP, not a vibrant partner.
Thus, the DA will increasingly find it difficult to resort to its usual blend of scare politics around “minority interests” in confronting the ANC and soliciting support for itself. This is simply because it achieved this way back in 1999 and the continued preaching to the converted will wear thin rapidly.
The DA will have to revise its politics radically, because the perceived mantra of a “black” behemoth in the form of the ANC is quickly evaporating — those who were likely to be attracted by the message are already in the party.
The issue for the DA from now on is where it will get the support to challenge the ANC for power. The only logical direction — which it thankfully recognises, albeit grudgingly — is to go for black voters.
Furthermore, there is the lurking threat that those members of the NNP who defected to the DA in 1999 might start to question their DA membership, seeing it as a party whose policies will take them nowhere, except into a racial dead end. They might also embrace the ANC.
Also, most significantly, the death of the NNP has serious implications for the politics of the tripartite alliance.
Is it bringing remnants of voters still steeped in racial identity politics — a position that will of course rile Cosatu and the SACP? The ANC has to ask what value the NNP is bringing into the alliance.
The ANC will find it perilous to rationalise the coming of the NNP into the alliance based on “national unity” as the tripartite alliance will likely not buy this view. Cosatu and the SACP will be focused on the NNP’s actual ideological credentials.
This is likely to set into motion debates within the alliance, focusing contentious issues such as economic policy, now that the national unity problem is receding into the background.
This kind of scenario is bound to pass, although it is purely speculative at present to try to understand the exact path that it will follow. But it is clear that South Africa is experiencing a decisive shift from parochial, identity politics to more rational politics based on issues.
Ironically, the NNP in its death will have achieved one thing that it had consistently failed to do in life: to bequeath some positive elements to South African society.