Local politics could shift fundamentally during the upcoming 15-day municipal defection window — and parties are not letting the opportunity to attract a few more councillors slip past.
In the week before the floor-crossing period started, the Independent Democrats (ID), for example, has e-mailed or sent SMS messages to about 3 000 of the approximately 9 000 councillors countrywide.
“It’s part of the strategy to grow the party. There have been so many inquiries,” says ID leader Patricia de Lille. Formed early last year during the provincial and national defections, it has less than a handful of councillors across the country.
While there have been interested responses — “When can we meet for more details?” said one — not all were welcome. Malcolm Lennox, the Democratic Alliance (DA) whip at Ekurhuleni, took exception.
“I am not for sale,” he told the Mail & Guardian. “That [blanket SMS] is what makes a mockery out of the whole process.”
ID secretary general Avril Harding was upbeat: “We are in the process of building the party. We are more overt than others.”
The more traditional wining and dining, odd lunch and behind-closed-door chats have been part of the run-up to the floor-crossing period that begins on September 1. Councillors will have 15 days to decide on whether to find a new political home; at least 10% of the party must move for the defections to be valid.
For the New National Party, the defection period will be a test of whether leader Martinus van Schalkwyk’s decision to join the African National Congress is accepted at grassroots level, says Jonathan Faull, a researcher at the Institute for Democracy in South Africa.
It is the NNP’s second major political swing in less than two years. During the 2002 municipal floor-crossing round, the party re-established itself after its withdrawal from the DA, under whose umbrella it fought the 2000 municipal poll.
Then the ANC-NNP cooperation pact took control of Cape Town council from the DA. Now the possibility of a hung council looms. For the ANC to gain full control, 19 of the 32 NNP councillors must join the ANC. The DA has 70 seats in the 200-strong council. Of the remaining 16 seats, the African Christian Democratic Party holds eight; the others are distributed among small parties.
NNP secretary general Darryl Swanepoel dismissed such speculation. “Those who still have a contribution to make are following the lead of the [NNP] federal council.” Any remaining NNP councillor would still be bound by the ANC-NNP cooperation pact, he added.
While many play their cards close to their chests, Cape Town NNP councillor Carol Beerwinkel confirmed she would join the ANC and deputy mayor Gawa Samuels has already made public her intention to join.
A number of councillors will most likely serve out their term as NNP members. Some, the NNP concedes, may rejoin the DA. This weekend the NNP is wrapping up a series of meetings with its 340 councillors — half of them in the Western Cape. In addition, there will be several joint ANC-NNP meetings addressed by leaders from both parties. The NNP wants its councillors to cross as it will not contest another election.
In this numbers game, several Western Cape councils could turn into hung municipalities.
The DA is ambivalent about accepting ex-NNP members who previously defected. One party leader said he would oppose the readmission of some NNP councillors “even if they begged”. DA Cape Town metro chairperson Helen Zille said new councillors would only be welcome if they “share our values” and there will be no guarantee of future positions.
While the NNP, and the Western Cape, are set to be most affected by floor-crossings, apprehension is building within the ranks of the Inkatha Freedom Party. Most of its approximately 1 000 councillors are based in KwaZulu-Natal, the IFP heartland where the party lost ground in the April elections.
IFP secretary general Musa Zondi confirmed a number of KwaZulu- Natal councillors had come “under immense pressure” from the ANC. Throughout August, the party had held meetings with its councillors across KwaZulu-Natal, Gauteng, Limpopo and the Northern Cape. “That’s the best we can do. Now we will have to wait,” Zondi said.
The United Democratic Movement (UDM), which lost nine of its senior parliamentary leaders in last year’s national and provincial defection round, has dismissed possible losses. “There’s no need for panic,” said UDM secretary general Malizole Diko.
The party held on to all but three of its councillors in the last defection round, but it lost control of Umtata council following a by-election marked by widespread disgruntlement over the party’s performance. This showed in April’s election when UDM support dropped by more than one percentage point to 2,28%.
Meanwhile, the ANC can again expect to be the biggest winner in this second municipal defection round. In 2002 it welcomed 51 new councillors into its ranks while the DA lost 417, predominately to the NNP, and gained 17, including three each from the ANC and UDM, according to the Independent Electoral Commission. Of the 555 councillors who crossed the floor, 19 turned independents and six into representatives of ratepayers and community associations.