The Nobel Peace Prize being announced Friday could focus on great threats to world, such as weapons of mass destruction or HIV/Aids, peace processes that need a boost or, as it often has, come as a complete surprise to Nobel watchers.
With a record 194 nominations, the committee had a broad field to choose from. It won’t say who was nominated, or who even made it into contention as a finalist.
The secretive Norwegian awards committee gives no hints, so the guessing is likely to continue until 11am (9am MT). That’s when committee chairperson Ole Danbolt Mjoes is to emerge from their meeting room in Oslo with an intently watched announcement that begins: ”The Norwegian Nobel Committee has decided to award the Nobel Peace Prize for 2004 to ….”
The rest of that sentence, some speculate, could be the International Atomic Energy Agency and its head, Mohamed ElBaradei, or United States politicians Sam Nunn and Richard Lugar for their programme to dispose of nuclear weapons left after the collapse of the Soviet Union, or former United Nations chief weapons inspector Hans Blix, or Mordechai Vanunu, a former Israeli nuclear technician who spent 18 years in prison for exposing his country’s nuclear weapons programme.
Or guesses suggest that Mjoes, the chairperson, might say The Treatment Action Campaign in South Africa, and its leader Zackie Achmat for their work fighting HIV/Aids; or Chinese military surgeon Jiang Yanyong who in 2003 forced the Chinese government to admit that Sars had become a crisis.
The decision has often stumped the experts. Last year’s winner, Iranian human rights activist Shirin Ebadi, wasn’t even mentioned in last years speculation, with favored Pope John Paul II and former Czech President Vaclav Havel.
Those watching the prize, such as Stein Toennessen, director of the Oslo-based International Peace Research Institute, have their own favourites, based on educated guess, knowledge of world affairs, gut feelings and everything but hints from the notoriously tightlipped committee.
Toennessen is betting on ElBaradei and the IEAE, Blix, the Aids campaign or the Chinese military surgeon.
Espen Barth Eide, of the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs, agreed that they were prospects, but pointed out that the expanded European Union could be a winner for enhancing stability and peace in Europe.
Dan Smith, a London-based peace activist and researcher, doubted a prize concerning weapons of mass destruction, and said his own favourites were Save the Children or Courage to Refuse, a group of Israel soldiers who refused to serve in the occupied territories.
Others mentioned in speculation include Russian human rights activist Sergei Kovalyev; Cuban dissident Oswaldo Paya; the European Union; Pope John Paul II; The Salvation Army; United Nations special envoy to Iraq Lakhdar Brahimi; Russian anti-war group Mothers in Black, the International Solidarity Movement and Nguyen Dan Que, a Vietnamese human rights and democracy activist.
Most agree that US President George Bush and British Prime Minister Tony Blair have no chance, partly because most Norwegians were against the war in Iraq.
The award, which includes 10-million Swedish kronor ($1,3-million), is always presented on December 10, the anniversary of the death of its founder, Swedish industrialist Alfred Nobel. The peace prize is awarded in Oslo, and the other Nobel prizes are presented in the Swedish capital, Stockholm. – Sapa-AP