Australian Prime Minister John Howard is on course for a fourth consecutive victory in Saturday’s general elections, with polls on Friday night suggesting he could even return with an increased majority despite a bruising campaign.
The opposition leader, Mark Latham, spent the last day on the stump visiting his former primary school in the western Sydney suburb of Green Valley. Hopes that his Labour party might win appeared to fade after a Newspoll survey of 12 marginal seats suggested that the ruling Liberal-National party coalition could expect 51,5% of the vote.
Though the results fall within the margin of error, all but a handful of polls over the course of the campaign have forecast a victory for the government.
If Australia’s 13-million voters give Howard a fourth election victory, he will equal the tally of the 1980s Labour prime minister, Bob Hawke, and potentially outstrip the length of his term in office.
Bookmakers have Howard as a strong favourite to retain power; his government holds 82 seats in the 150-seat Lower House and would be out of office if it lost just seven seats and the support of independents. Labour needs to win 12 seats to claim victory.
But Australian elections frequently throw up unexpected surges against ruling parties and Howard on Friday told wavering voters that a protest vote could be enough to eject him.
”I certainly don’t want people to get the ideas that, ‘Well, I might want Howard to get back but I’ll give him a kick over this or that.’ Not only do kicks hurt but if there is enough of them they can kick you out of office,” he told 2UE radio in Sydney.
Labour’s own polling is reportedly forecasting a coalition victory, but strategists are pinning their hopes on last-minute support from the 15% of Australian voters who do not make up their minds until they reach the polling booths.
One divisive campaign issue has been the country’s attitude to Iraq. Latham (43) has vowed to bring home Australia’s 850-strong forces, while Howard (65) has remained adamant they will stay as long as they are needed.
There was a late fillip for the opposition’s economic record on Friday when a treasury costing of the party’s policies — submitted as part of the campaign — revealed that they would not cost as much as the government had claimed.
But the 11th-hour report was almost lost in the closing flurry of campaigning. Howard has focused on a domestic agenda pitched towards mortgage borrowers in the suburbs of Sydney, Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth, repeatedly claiming that interest rates would be higher under a Labour government.
Spending promises by the two parties have topped Aus$20-billion over the course of the six-week campaign. Howard’s command of the Australian media agenda has subjected Labour policy proposals to levels of scrutiny that have shown up damaging weaknesses, although the government has got away with a less rigorous examination of its own policies.
Two conservative bishops even came out to attack the Labour policy of redirecting subsidies to private schools towards the state sector, leading to allegations of collusion between the federal health minister, Tony Abbott, and the Catholic Archbishop of Sydney, George Pell. — Guardian Unlimited Â