Israel’s Parliament will on Monday begin debating bitterly opposed legislation to remove Jewish settlers from the Gaza Strip next year ahead of a vote that could force a major realignment of Israeli politics.
Thousands of settlers and their supporters plan to lay siege to Parliament in an attempt to block a vote on the Bill on Tuesday that Ariel Sharon is likely to win but which is expected to split his party and force him to rely on the support of the opposition.
The prime minister’s unilateral ”disengagement plan” has also divided the military, religious leaders and ordinary Israelis, some of whom see it as a step toward easing the conflict with the Palestinians and others who argue that it is rewarding terrorism by surrendering land that is rightfully Israel’s.
Sharon’s fractured Cabinet on Sunday approved legislation outlining compensation of up to $500 000 for settlers who are forced from their homes and jail terms for those who resist.
The prime minister was backed by his arch rival, Binyamin Netanyahu, and other ministers who initially agitated against the disengagement plan. But he was opposed by key figures on the far right of the ruling Likud party such as Uzi Landau and Natan Sharansky, the former Soviet dissident who likened the disengagement legislation to oppression in the USSR. Sharon has said he will sack ministers who vote against the plan.
The real confrontation will come over the next two days during the parliamentary debate on the Bill. About 18 of the Likud party’s 40 MPs say they intend to vote against the legislation.
At the weekend, the spiritual leader of the religious Shas party, Rabbi Ovadia Yosef, ruled that its MPs are obliged to vote against the plan.
That will leave the prime minister reliant on the opposition Labour party to force it through and with a government commanding the reliable support of as little as one-third of MPs.
Shimon Peres, the Labour leader, said the vote will be one of the strangest in Israel’s history. ”The main opposition party in its entirety will support the prime minister’s policy whereas the prime minister’s party will split in the vote and about half the members will vote against the prime minister,” he said.
”On Wednesday we will stand before a new political reality of a minority government that cannot function, and most of its members are against the prime minister and against forming a different coalition.”
Labour has pledged to provide a ”safety net” in Parliament for the disengagement legislation but Peres is not committed to propping up the government on other contentious issues, particularly its economic policies.
The Labour leader has not yet said how his party will vote when the annual Budget comes before Parliament next week. Normally it would be expected to oppose the programme of austerity measures but that could bring the government down if Likud opponents of the Gaza withdrawal also voted against the Budget.
Some Likud MPs say they will vote against the government on every Bill unless Sharon agrees to hold a national referendum on the withdrawal from Gaza. The prime minister is likely to win a referendum but he says it is a delaying tactic that could postpone the pullout by a year.
The crisis lays the ground for coalition negotiations between Likud and Labour, although the bodies of both parties are against it. A majority of Likud MPs is opposed to bringing Labour into government.
Peres could force his party’s hand but he is believed to be looking for commitments on an election date by the end of next year and assurances Sharon is not pulling 7 500 settlers out of Gaza only to expand Jewish settlements on the West Bank that are home to about 420 000 people.
Government lawyers have told the administration that pulling the settlers and troops out of the Gaza Strip will not relieve it of its legal responsibilities as an occupying power. The assessment, submitted to the national security council, also warns that foreign governments will not recognise the withdrawal as an end to the occupation because Israel will continue to control the airspace over the Gaza Strip and its border with Egypt. – Guardian Unlimited Â