To the end, Yasser Arafat kept his subordinates wrangling among themselves for influence and power.
The Palestinian leader refused to anoint a successor even as his health declined over recent months. By the time he slipped into a coma, all the Palestinian leadership had to fall back on in deciding how to disperse the many powers that lay in the grip of the one man for 40 years was the law.
And that, in the view of many Palestinians, may be what saves them.
”There is a possibility of a smooth transition if everybody abides by the law,” said Abdel Jiwad Saleh, an MP and former Cabinet minister who broke with Arafat.
”If we stick with the law there will be no problem. But there are other interests at work who would like to see chaos because it serves their aims, and we have to resist that.”
The Palestinian Parliament stuck to the law on Thursday by swearing in its speaker, Ruhi Fatouh, as the caretaker president of the Palestinian Authority (PA).
There are then supposed to be elections within 60 days to elect a new PA president. But some leaders of the Fatah movement, which dominates the Palestine Liberation Organisation and Parliament, have argued over recent days that the Israeli military occupation makes an election impossible. They propose introducing legislation to allow Parliament to choose the next Palestinian president, which would ensure the post remained in Fatah’s hands.
The favourite to succeed Fatouh if Parliament gets to choose is the former prime minister and man elected yesterday to replace Arafat as chairperson of the PLO, Mahmoud Abbas, who is also known as Abu Mazen.
But Arafat’s death could bring into the open some of the bitter political rivalries seething beneath the surface and see a serious challenge to Abbas, especially within Fatah where he is viewed by some influential figures as too cooperative with the Israelis.
On Thursday, Farouk Kaddoumi, who advocates continuing the armed struggle against Israel, automatically became the new leader of Fatah. But Kaddoumi is in exile and says he intends to remain so, leaving Abbas as his deputy in practical control of the movement.
”Abu Mazen at the top is a mixed blessing,” said Saleh. ”I don’t think he’s dramatically different from Arafat in many ways but I think he’s a willing democrat. Anybody that comes is an improvement on Arafat.”
But Abbas lacks broad credibility on the street.
Less than 43% of Palestinians have confidence in him, according to a survey released this week by An-Najah university in Nablus.
The prime minister, Ahmed Qureia, commands even less support, with just 28 believing he is capable of managing the PA’s affairs.
If anyone attracts public support, it is the former head of Fatah’s military wing on the West Bank, Marwan Barghouti, but he is in an Israeli prison serving five consecutive life terms for organising attacks on soldiers and settlers in the occupied territories.
The Israelis could choose to release him but the Palestinians doubt that Ariel Sharon really wants a credible Palestinian leader to negotiate with.
Ahmed Soboh, a Palestinian deputy information minister, said he believes Abbas has already been damaged by his brief tenure last year as prime minister when he was embraced by the United States but failed to win any substantial concessions from Israel.
”President Bush’s enthusiastic welcome for Abu Mazen was not good for him. Abu Mazen was more popular in Washington than in Ramallah,” he said.
But if Fatah throws its weight behind a single candidate, whoever that is, it can still count on a sizeable body of support.
Recent opinion polls show that it is still the most popular of the parties, commanding support from about one-quarter of Palestinians, with Hamas in second place.
Arafat’s passing may also prompt a challenge from a younger generation of politicians who say they want an end to revolutionary intrigue and more open and democratic government.
They are keen to restart talks with the Israelis. But some, such as the former Gaza security chief, Mohammed Dahlan, are viewed with suspicion because the Americans have embraced them.
Saleh says he sees no reason why there cannot be a ballot if Israel eases the mechanics of occupation. – Guardian Unlimited Â