As Mozambique calmly voted on a second and final day on Thursday for a new president and parliament, foreign observers and voters said the strength of its maturing democracy will be measured by the transparency of the count – and the reaction to the outcome.
Afonso Dhlakama, the former rebel commander in Mozambique’s disastrous 16-year civil war and the main opposition Renamo party candidate, bitterly claims the presidency was stolen from him in the two previous post-conflict elections that international observers called basically free and fair.
If he loses again in elections seen as transparent, free and fair, Dhlakama says he’ll be the first to congratulate the winner.
But he has also hinted darkly that he will not accept a third defeat he considers unfair.
Dhlakama narrowly lost five years ago to retiring President Joaquim Chissano, who has led the country since the death of independence hero Samora Machel in 1986. With the popular Chissano stepping down after two elected terms, most observers saw this election as Dhlakama’s last best chance at the presidency.
With 17 parties running for Parliament and five contesting the presidential race, many here believe the county is moving toward a presidential runoff next month.
David Pottie, an international observer with the Atlanta-based Carter Centre human rights group, said Mozambique may not be mentally or financially prepared for a runoff.
Tomas Varieria Mario, a Mozambican political analyst, was more blunt about the consequences of a second round of voting. ”The second round will be very tough, and we could see a lot of political violence,” he said.
Voters who trickled to the polls in very small numbers in the capital on Thursday morning appeared more confident that Mozambique would pass the test of a runoff.
”Democracy is not new in Mozambique,” said Luis Sambele, 29, who works for Save the Children’s HIV/Aids programme in Maputo. ”It is possible there will be a second round, but I don’t think it will be a problem. We’ve had peace for more than 10 years. The country is under control.”
Chissano’s Frelimo party has governed since independence from Portugal in 1975.
Dhlakama’s deputy, Raul Domingo, bolted from Renamo and formed his own party, splitting the opposition. Domingo’s popularity has drawn votes away from Renamo, and some fear the consequences of a close runoff between Dhlakama and Chissano’s hand-picked successor, Frelimo candidate Armando Guebuza.
Guebuza, returning to government after becoming wealthy as a businessman, is a former Frelimo negotiator in the Rome peace talks. But he is also seen as a tough politician.
He demonstrated his toughness as the interior minister who implemented the then-Marxist government’s forced relocation program in the early 1980s that saw urban unemployed arrested and resettled in the remote rural north.
Dhlakama is no stranger to violence as the rebel commander in the civil war that killed a million people before it ended in 1992.
He also still maintains his own ”presidential guard,” a well-armed private militia of 500 members that he contends was authorised by the 1992 Rome peace accord.
Seemingly confident of victory after Chissano announced his retirement, Dhlakama abandoned his confrontational campaign rhetoric of past elections and campaigned as a statesmen. Even if a party had done well for 30 years, he said about Frelimo, it is still time for change, for new leadership to deal with old unsolved problems.
Veteran journalist and political commentator Moise Mabunda said under the pressures of a close runoff, many fear Dhlakama could become a party leader who tolerates violence and fuels it with fiery campaign rhetoric.
But many voters in Maputo, a traditional Frelimo stronghold, dismiss the threat.
”Dhlakama always does that,” said Cesar Jose, a 22-year-old student. ”I don’t think there will be a problem.” – Sapa-AP