South Africa’s real retail sales rose by a record 12,8% year-on-year (y/y) in September after a revised 11,9% y/y increase (original estimate was 11,7% y/y) in September, Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) said on Thursday. This brought real retail sales growth for the first 10 months to 9,9% y/y.
This was only the fifth time this year that the y/y increase has been in double digits after a 10,6% y/y rise in January, an 11,3% increase in February and 11,1% in July. The current time series started in January 1998.
Stats SA had previously said that real retail sales grew by 5,7% in 2003, compared with 2002’s 4,5% increase, but the new series now estimate that real retail sales grew by 4,9% in 2003 from 2,3% in 2002.
The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) implemented a 150 basis-point cut in interest rates in mid-June 2003, which was the first cut in South African interest rates since September 2001.
There was a further 100 basis-point cut in mid-August, another 100 basis-point cut in mid-September, a 150 basis-point cut in October and a 50 basis-point cut in mid-December. In 2004, the Reserve Bank cut rates by 50 basis points in August.
South Africa’s festive-season retail sales in the fourth quarter, which covers the Christian Christmas season, as well as the Hindu Diwali festival, the Muslim Eid festival and the Jewish Hanukkah festival, are expected to be the best in at least 20 years. according to the Ernest & Young festive-season retail trends survey conducted among 500 retailers by the Bureau for Economic Research at the University of Stellenbosch.
Retail sales are expected to grow by 17,4% y/y in the fourth quarter of 2004, compared with 10,2% y/y in the festive season of 2003, which reflects volume growth of 11,7% y/y compared with 8% y/y last year. — I-Net Bridge