Zimbabwe’s opposition is steeling itself for defeat in this week’s parliamentary elections as new allegations emerge of plans to rig the ballot. Veteran observers such as Pius Ncube, the Roman Catholic Archbishop of Bulawayo, believe the opposition has already lost the election.
The archbishop on Saturday called for ”a nonviolent popular uprising” to overthrow President Robert Mugabe, but leaders of the MDC believe there is little hope of Ukraine-style street protests in a country cowed by years of violence.
David Coltart, the MDC’s legal affairs spokesperson, said: ”I’m not sure that the people of Zimbabwe are ready yet to go to the streets. This isn’t Kiev or Belgrade.
”We don’t have the same communications as those European countries have. We don’t have independent radio stations. We don’t have sympathetic neighbours. And people understand that.”
In the run-up to Thursday’s election, Mugabe has appointed a former army colonel to head the country’s electoral commission, and signed laws allowing military officers to be election officials.
Senior military officers have close politicial ties to Mugabe, who has rewarded their loyalty with confiscated commercial farms.
The voters’ rolls are being stuffed with fictitious names, opponents claim. One investigation of 500 homes found that nearly a fifth of the people on the roll were not at their supposed addresses.
The government has also been accused of manipulating the voters’ roll in rural constituencies, where Zanu-PF is traditionally stronger.
In one remote rural constituency east of the capital, Harare, the MDC claims that 14,000 names have been added to the roll since the presidential election three years ago.
By contrast, in urban Bulawayo South, which has an opposition MP, just 3 600 people have joined the roll.
The government has agreed to an MDC demand that ballot boxes should be made of plastic rather than wood so that election observers can see the level of votes inside in an attempt to prevent them being stuffed with fake votes.
But instead of being translucent, as the opposition requested, the boxes will be made of clear plastic, meaning that the ballot papers will be visible from the outside.
Coltart said: ”They’re putting the word out, ‘Now we’re going to know how your village voted. And if you as a village want food, you’re going to vote for us.”’
The opposition’s campaigning takes place despite draconian legislation such as the Public Order and Security Act that prohibits political gatherings without prior approval from the police.
The police have used the act to disrupt MDC rallies and arrest speakers.
”Five and a half years of brutal repression have left a legacy of fear in this country,” said Andrew Moyse, the coordinator of the Zimbabwe media monitoring project. ”The laws are there to silence the media and curb people’s freedom of association.
”They’ve just started allowing opposition rallies to happen in the last few weeks.”
Bulawayo, Zimbabwe’s second city, is the centre of opposition to Mugabe. Campaigning takes place here in churches, homes and municipal parks.
At one MDC rally last week, dancers in black jeans and white trainers shimmied to a hip-hop soundtrack in a dusty park. Opposition speakers implored voters to turn out in huge numbers.
”That’s the only way we can stop this election being rigged,” said one.
As he spoke, a Nissan minivan converted for use as a commuter bus zoomed into the clearing. Youths leaped out raising their hands in the MDC’s trademark gesture, an open palm.
They taped a campaign poster to the back of their van, then zoomed off, to cheers from the crowd.
MDC supporters point to the excitement at their rallies as proof there is a groundswell of support in the country.
”If there’s a [Zanu-PF] landslide, there may not be an immediate response.” Mr Coltart said. ”But Mugabe is going to find it very difficult to govern, difficult to maintain any semblance of legitimacy.”
One factor in the opposition’s favour is that the ruling party is in disarray.
Mugabe has appointed members of his own clan, the Zezuru, to every important position in the party, including his new vice-president, Joyce Mujuru.
The former information minister Jonathan Moyo fell out with the president after campaigning against the appointment of Mujuru. He is now standing for parliament as an independent.
Six provincial party chairpersons, all from non-Zezuru areas, were suspended for refusing to endorse Mujuru.
But even if the opposition wins a majority of the seats being contested, there is another hurdle to overcome. The ruling party has a head start because Mr Mugabe appoints the occupants of 30 of the 150 seats in the Zimbabwean parliament.
SA observers expect high turnout
The large number of people attending election rallies boded well for a high voter turn-out in Zimbabwe’s general election, says the South African observer mission (SAOM).
”… the mission is encouraged by the high turn-out at rallies by Zanu-PF and the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC),” the SAOM said in a statement.
”As a result the mission anticipates high voter turn-out on voting day,” it said, adding that campaigning had been peaceful.
Zimbabweans go to the polls on Thursday.
The SAOM said it had been in Zimbabwe since March 14, and had observed 31 rallies held by Zanu-PF and the MDC.
The observers, led by Labour Minister Membathisi Mdladlana and advocate Ngoako Ramotlhodi, had also monitored voter education sessions, party canvassing sessions and visited polling stations.
The mission had met representatives from Zanu-PF, the MDC, the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission, the Electoral Supervisory Commission, the Zimbabwe Electoral Support Network, the Zimbabwe Council of Churches, the Zimbabwe Crisis Coalition and the National Constitutional Assembly.
The SAOM said it still planned to meet the Zimbabwe Republic Police and Zimbabwe Broadcasting Holdings. – Sapa, Guardian Unlimited Â