If events during the week’s build-up to the opening Vodacom Tri-Nations clash between South Africa and Australia are a determining factor, then the Springboks are clear favourites to get their campaign off to a winning start.
As the business end of the season starts at Loftus on Saturday, Jake White’s Boks have had by far the better preparation, as the visitors have struggled to put a number of distracting issues behind them.
The Boks come off a stunning Mandela Challenge victory at Ellis Park last weekend, and have arguably picked their strongest possible line-up for this clash.
Australia, on the other hand, suffered an ignominious defeat, despite the score line looking closer than it should have, and have had to make changes in vital positions in a bid to end their five-match losing streak on South African soil.
The home team have also been soaking up the atmosphere at altitude in Pretoria since last Sunday, while the Wallabies have strangely opted to sample the myriad delights of Cape Town, about 1 600km away — a ploy that backfired last weekend.
Further sideshows that have bedevilled the Australians efforts to reverse their fortunes have been the nightclub incident that saw three players fined and one, reserve scrumhalf Matt Henjak, sent home.
History is also against the World Cup runners-up, having never tasted victory in three attempts at Loftus, while their record on the Highveld has yielded just one win in 10 matches — at Ellis Park about 42 years ago.
Loftus is also the venue of the Wallabies’ heaviest loss to date in Tests, when they went down 61-22 in a Tri-Nations encounter in 1997.
However, as has been shown in the two previous encounters, little can be made of the varying factors in the days preceding a Test match between these two fierce rivals — South Africa looked likely to get a rare win in Sydney, while Australia were favourites last weekend, but neither happened.
Coach Jake White was forthright in his assessment of the Wallabies’ apparent predicaments this week.
”The nightclub incident must have an effect, but it all depends on how the Aussies deal with that issue,” White said.
Team changes
What is sure is that the Wallabies will compete better at the lineouts after coach Eddie Jones included Daniel Vickerman at lock. Matt Dunning at tighthead prop should add more grunt in the forward effort.
The Boks, too, have made some changes, but most importantly the back line that performed so admirably last week stays largely intact, with only Fourie du Preez replacing Ricky Januarie at scrumhalf. Number eight Jacques Cronje returns to form a new-look, exciting trio with Du Preez and Andre Pretorius.
”It was an eye-opener the way we played,” White declared this week. ”We showed we can play different styles and it would be silly to move away from what we saw last week.”
The boot of Percy Montgomery is sure to play an important role, and the 66-Test veteran could become the first Springbok to score 500 points in Tests during the Loftus match.
The squad, though, are wary of a Wallaby backlash and are approaching the match with confidence, but not arrogance.
A factor perhaps in the visitors’ favour is that under referee Paul Honiss, the Boks only have a 33% winning record — and he was, of course, at the centre of the infamous incident in Dublin last year when he told captain John Smit to ”Go talk to your players”, and inexplicably allowed Ronan O’Gara to scamper over for a try that cost the Boks dearly.
What the Wallabies expect
Meanwhile, Wallaby coach Eddie Jones is expecting South Africa to play Bulls-style rugby on Saturday.
”I think they’ll play around the rucks a bit more … Bulls-style,” said Jones. ”If we get quick ball, and get width and space, we can maybe work an advantage in that area.”
The Wallabies have ace ball poacher George Smith at open-side flank and can maintain their intensity at the breakdown in the second half by bringing on Phil Waugh.
John Roe is on their other flank, as they need height in their lineout to counter South African locks Victor Matfield and Bakkies Botha.
”We’ve progressed well in the scrums and mauls, but we’re not where we want to be in the lineouts. The lineouts are absolutely crucial,” said Jones.
”We’ve lost our lineout leaders in Justin Harrison and David Giffin. They were very experienced. The challenge is to out-strategise your opponent there.”
Jones expects another hostile reception for his side at Loftus.
”It’s one of the most challenging grounds in world rugby. We’ll have to front up and play well,” he said.
”It’s always hostile at capital cities. We have to be able to cope with that. Some of the players were affected last week. We hope that the players we picked to start this week won’t be affected.” — Sapa
Teams:
Springboks: 15 Percy Montgomery, 14 Breyton Paulse, 13 Jaque Fourie, 12 Jean de Villiers, 11 Bryan Habana, 10 Andre Pretorius, 9 Fourie du Preez, 8 Jacques Cronje, 7 Juan Smith, 6 Joe van Niekerk, 5 Victor Matfield, 4 Bakkies Botha, 3 CJ van der Linde, 2 John Smit (captain), 1 Gurthro Steenkamp.
Replacements: 16 Gary Botha, 17 Lawrence Sephaka, 18 Albert van den Berg, 19 Schalk Burger, 20 Ricky Januarie, 21 Wayne Julies, 22 Jaco van der Westhuyzen.
Wallabies: 15 Chris Latham, 14 Wendell Sailor, 13 Morgan Turinui, 12 Matt Giteau, 11 Lote Tuqiri, 10 Stephen Larkham, 9 George Gregan (captain), 8 David Lyons, 7 George Smith, 6 John Roe, 5 Nathan Sharpe, 4 Daniel Vickerman, 3 Matt Dunning, 2 Jeremy Paul, 1 Bill Young.
Replacements: 16 Stephen Moore, 17 Al Baxter, 18 Mark Chisolm, 19 Phil Waugh, 20 Chris Whitaker, 21 Stirling Mortlock, Drew Mitchell.