Saudi Arabia moved quickly on Mondayh to reassure the world that the death of King Fahd, its ruler for the past 23 years, would not bring turmoil or a sudden change of direction to the world’s largest oil exporter.
In an apparently smooth transition, Crown Prince Abdullah, who had been in day-to-day charge for almost a decade after a stroke incapacitated the king, was immediately declared monarch. Prince Sultan, the defence minister, was declared next in line to the throne.
News of the king’s death contributed to a rise in oil prices above $61 a barrel, but Saudi officials said the kingdom would stand by its policy of pumping enough oil to satisfy markets and stabilise prices.
In London the Saudi ambassador, Prince Turki al-Faisal, said he could not imagine ”any particular change” in the kingdom’s oil or foreign policies.
”We are not looking for this to be a particularly long or difficult transition,” a United States state department official said. ”Abdullah is someone we have had very good relations with.”
Although Saudi officials had been insisting for weeks that the 83-year-old king was making a good recovery after being taken to hospital in May with breathing problems, his death seems to have caused little surprise among the Saudi public.
”This is a very sad day,” Mohammad al-Aqeel, a 31-year-old engineer, told Reuters. ”But I think the people were ready for this to happen as he was very ill for a long time.”
Recitations of the Qur’an could be heard on Monday from mosques, radios and televisions in Riyadh, but there will be no official period of mourning because the strict Wahhabi sect regards death as the will of God. Trading on the stock market was suspended briefly, but government offices, shops and businesses remained open.
Flags were not lowered to half-mast because that might be considered blasphemous. The Saudi flag carries the words of the Muslim confession of faith: ”There is no God but God; Muhammad is the messenger of God.”
King Fahd’s funeral will take place in the Saudi capital on Tuesday afternoon. An Arab summit due to be held in Egypt on Wednesday has been postponed for up to a week.
Prince Abdullah will formally ascend the throne on Wednesday when princes and tribal leaders swear allegiance to him and the new Crown Prince Sultan in a traditional ceremony. By custom a council of religious scholars then declares the transfer of power legitimate.
”The transition appears to have been as expected, but there are two big buts,” said Simon Henderson, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near-East Policy and author of the book After King Fahd.
One is the health of Abdullah and his designated successor, Sultan, both of whom are in their early 80s.
”Neither Abdullah’s nor Sultan’s reigns will be long,” Henderson said. There was also the question of whether they would retain their military commands or pass them to other princes.
Abdullah is the commander of the national guard, which protects the royal family. After the post of defence minister, held by Sultan, the third big security post is that of interior minister, which is held by the ultra-conservative Prince Nayef, who also controls the religious police.
For the time being at least, it appears this will not change. In one of his first decrees issued on Monday, Prince Abdullah said all ministers would remain in their posts.
Abdullah inherits a kingdom which in theory is among the wealthiest countries in the world, with 25% of the globe’s known oil reserves. But this also creates an economy subject to the vagaries of oil prices and a burgeoning population which needs to be provided with jobs.
He also faces conflicting pressures from those who want reform as quickly as possible and others who want to turn back the clock to the early years of Islam. The kingdom has faced a wave of attacks during the past few years by Islamist militants.
Chris Doyle of the Council for Arab-British Understanding suggested on Monday that the transition might tempt militants to test the strength of the new regime. But he doubted they could have much impact. ”The Saudi authorities have managed to get more of a grip on the situation recently,” he said.
During his 10 years as day-to-day ruler, Prince Abdullah has been held back to some degree by the fact that he was effectively a king without the name. ”King Fahd’s death will boost Abdullah’s authority,” Doyle said. ”He is now master of the kingdom in a way that he was not before.”
The question is how much difference that will make in practice. ”I don’t see any sweeping changes,” he said.
Under Saudi Arabia’s succession arrangements, each of the 44 sons of the late King Abd al-Aziz had a claim to the throne. Many have died and not all are considered suitable heirs, but the prospect over the next few years is a series of short reigns by elderly monarchs, which may hamper progress towards reform.
Once they have gone, deciding which of the hundreds of grandsons of Abd al-Aziz should take over will be a formidable task. ”There’s a very crowded phalanx of princes out there,” Doyle said.
At the Saudi Institute, a pro-reform group in Washington, Ali al-Ahmed had no doubt about the solution. ”The next step must include a transfer of power from the ruling tribe of al-Saud to the people of the country,” he said. ”Fahd was a dictator who entrenched the power of his family in the country. Although Fahd has been practically dead for 10 years, his actual death is an opportunity to demand wide-ranging reform.”
Home of oil and Islam
- Saudi Arabia was created in 1932 when King Abd al-Aziz (often known as Ibn Saud) unified areas of the Arabian peninsula under his control
- It was impoverished until 1938 when oil was found. Now it is the world’s largest oil exporter
- As the birthplace of Islam, it hosts millions of pilgrims every year
- The kingdom has a dire human rights record, says Amnesty International. Political parties are banned
- Restrictions on women’s movements make them dependent on male relatives – Guardian Unlimited Â