Infighting over the Senate elections in Zimbabwe’s opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) could scupper President Thabo Mbeki’s plans to broker multi-party talks with the ruling Zanu-PF. At a meeting at the Union Buildings last week, which MDC president Morgan Tsvangirai refused to attend, Mbeki impressed on the MDC top brass that a fragmented party would weaken his political leverage over President Robert Mugabe, who is desperate to resuscitate his ailing economy.
The extent of Mugabe’s concern was revealed in a confidential report on September 30, in which state security agencies warned that worsening economic hardships were fast eroding the patience of long-suffering Zimbabweans. “We must not fool ourselves by believing that the situation on the ground is normal, because we risk being caught unawares. People have grown impatient with the government,” the report read in part.
Mbeki’s rationale, people privy to the Pretoria talks told the Mail & Guardian, was that Zanu-PF would be less inclined to see the relevance of engaging “an opposition in turmoil” as part of “conditions to normalise the situation in Zimbabwe”.
Mbeki, flanked by his top aides Frank Chikane and Mojanku Gumbi, made two telephone calls last Thursday to Tsvangirai in Harare, addressing him as “Mr President” throughout the conversation. But he could not sway the opposition leader, who snubbed South Africa’s mediation initiative.
Those close to Tsvangirai say he was irked that protocol was not respected: their invitation to Pretoria was relayed to MDC secretary general Welshman Ncube, his arch nemesis in the party.
As if to underscore the urgency of Pretoria’s efforts to keep government to government talks on track, Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe Governor Gideon Gono told the diplomatic corps in Harare last week: “We are negotiating stages. When we are ready, soon, the two countries, the two governors and finance ministers will make an announcement [regarding a loan from SA]. The negotiations are taking place outside the realm of the press because that’s how we should conduct our bilateral relations.”
Gono confided that the fuel crisis, hurting business, government and consumers alike, was exacerbated by the depletion of foreign reserves spent on part payment of its debt to the International Monetary Fund to avert expulsion from the lending agency.
In his most recent monetary policy statement, the governor scrapped the currency auction in favour of allowing market forces to dictate the rate of the Zimbabwean dollar, currently trading at around Z$60 000 to the greenback. It is anticipated that prices of basic commodities, transport and fuel, which have skyrocketed, will further increase in the weeks ahead.
Economic commentator Dr Eric Bloch believes that a South African loan “could help solve the current crisis”, that it would take time to stabilise markets and that Gono’s measures are a “positive step towards restoring normalcy”.
Loan conditionality remained a sticking point, said Bloch, but he insisted that “prescribing conditions that have to do with economic and political stability” could not be frowned upon as already depressed Zimbabweans approach yet another grim festive season.
Mugabe has baulked at political conditionality in the past but his courting of, among others, China, Iran and Libya has not yielded the desired financial assistance. More compelling would be the distress signals raised by his security agents, who fear a violent ouster of the 81-year-old leader.