The African National Congress launches its local government election campaign this weekend in Cape Town, the one metropolitan area it stands a real chance of losing.
And it is common cause that the war over the city’s demographically complex terrain will be fought for voter turnout.
Parties are asking whether the ANC’s traditional supporters, largely in African areas, will get to the polls in greater numbers than the 50% that voted in 2000, or whether anger over slow housing delivery and internal party rifts, combined with the apathy typical of municipal elections, will result in more of them staying at home.
The Democratic Alliance is throwing key resources — notably deputy leader Helen Zille — into a drive to bring out the vote in mostly white suburban areas.
Neither the ANC nor the DA are willing to go public on polling data or strategies, but senior officials agree that each will be concentrating, American style, on mobilising its base.
“Turnout will decide this election,” said one ANC strategist. “It will determine whether the ANC is the largest single party, or gets more than 50% of the vote. We are concentrating on ensuring that voters in our base areas, including African and coloured areas, vote.”
Zille’s candidacy was prompted in part by an opinion survey showing she is overwhelmingly favoured by the DA’s traditional supporters and is most likely to get them to polling stations. Apathy in ANC-supporting wards and energy in the DA’s suburban heartland could see the city shift control, party officials believe.
In 2000, 54% of the vote went to the recently allied Democratic Party and New National Party. Lacklustre turnout in African areas (about 50%) and coloured areas (45%) was countered in white areas, where 65% and 80% of registered voters cast ballots. The DA lost control of the city during the October 2002 floor-crossing, as NNP-aligned councillors defected to the ANC.
In the April 2004 national and provincial elections, the DA won only 29% of the Cape Town vote, with a far higher turnout in African areas making most of the difference.
ANC officials think even a low turnout by their supporters will make it hard for the DA to bridge the gap between 30% and 50%.
They are delighted over the divisions in the opposition that have broken out since long-serving and popular councillor for Simon’s Town Nicki Holderness was ousted from the party ward list (see end).
A complicating factor is the Independent Democrats, which, despite sustaining serious damage from defections, remains a force in Cape Town. Patricia de Lille’s personal following and the disaffection of former NNP voters in coloured areas could give the party the balance of power. ANC and DA strategists reckon that, although weakened, the ID remains significant.
“We are definitely expected to be king-makers,” said ID general secretary Avril Harding.
The ID has refused to form coalitions. Harding argues that it will use any casting vote to enforce consensus government. And it clearly wants to keep its options open for post-election horse-trading. “We will even allow a minority to rule the city, but we will stay independent,” he insisted.
The ID is due to announce its mani-festo and mayoral candidate on Monday, but Harding seemed to scotch persistent rumours that De Lille would run. “Cape Town deserves a man with an effective track record in management,” he said.
The ANC plans to run largely on its record in power, officials say. It will stress improvements in the delivery of free basic services since it took over and dismiss DA allegations of financial mismanagement by pointing out that, during the DA’s tenure under mayor Pieter Marais, the city’s accounts were in chaos. They suggest it will also be important to be frank about failures, particularly in housing delivery, and to offer solutions.
Zille is stressing energetic leadership that balances social development imperatives with better investment in economic growth.
Speaking to the DA electoral college last month, she pointed to the ability of mayors such as London’s Ken Livingston, New York’s Rudolph Giuliani and Rome’s Walter Veltroni to combine global vision with “the nuts and bolts of ensuring garbage is collected, potholes filled and traffic moves”.
“We must fulfil the functions local government is supposed to fulfil, identify the kind of investment we want, have clean, efficient and open administration, reduce crime and end the financial mismanagement of the city,” she said.
Zille douses DA fires
The Democratic Alliance mayoral candidate in Cape Town, Helen Zille, has succeeded in putting out internal party fires after prominent ward councillor and former Simon’s Town mayor Nicki Holderness was replaced by a virtually unknown as DA candidate.
Holderness was replaced by Marius van Rensburg — who works in advertising and is the brother of sitting councillor Louis van Rensburg — by an electoral college in a tight vote of 16 to 15. DA provincial leader Theuns Botha participated and is known to have supported Van Rensburg. Botha is widely considered Zille’s arch-rival.
Holderness stormed out of the party and threatened to stand as an independent candidate in her Simon’s Town/Ocean View ward, which Zille was concerned would fall to the African National Congress if there was a split in the opposition vote.
The Independent Democrats are expected to stand in the area. If the DA fights the ID and an indepen-dent, the seat could go to the ANC.
The DA is standing in 85 of Cape Town’s 105 ward seats, and is putting forward 80 proportional list candidates for the other 105 seats.
Holderness had been placed at 43 on the proportional list by the electoral college, a risky position for re-election.
Zille struck a compromise with the local Simon’s Town branch and used her mayoral candidate’s prerogative and her power as DA metro-politan area leader to restore Holderness as ward candidate. Felicity Purchase, who had won renomination in her ward but threatened to resign and also stand as an independent in Fish Hoek in solidarity with Holderness, was also brought back on board.
On Thursday, Zille said Van Rensburg would be given a seat on the proportional list “probably in an electable position”.
Zille said Botha was “on board”, but he refused to attend an urgent meeting to discuss the Holderness matter with the local branch on Wed-nesday night. His cellphone was on message facility on Thursday.
Zille played down the conflicts, saying there was unhappiness over candidate selection in “every party in the world”. She said the week’s events did not constitute a liberal vs old National Party and defended Holderness and Purchase, both formerly of the NP. — Donwald Pressly