Jacob Zuma’s core supporters still believe that, with his accuser’s crediÂbility in doubt, he will go on to clear himself of rape charges and re-establish his chances of becoming the next African National Congress president.
And they stress that Zuma’s deepening woes do not necessarily strengthen President Thabo Mbeki’s position, because grassroots ANC members hold Mbeki responsible for engineering them.
Mbeki virtually announced his candidacy for a third term a week ago as Zuma battled for political survival.
Zuma sympathisers believe that the corruption case due to be heard in the Durban High Court in July may not happen at all. The Mail & Guardian has revealed that Zuma’s lawyers will apply for the charges to be set aside on the basis that his right to a fair trial has been prejudiced. This follows a Durban High Court ruling last month that search and seizure operations in Zuma’s various residences last year were unlawful.
In interviews with weekend newspapers, Mbeki said he would be happy with any ANC decision, including that he stay on for another term — in essence making himself available if nominated.
The ANC tradition is to avoid contestation for its top positions, particularly the presidency. Where possible, the party has settled the issue long before its congress. At other times, when a showdown has appeared unavoidable, it has settled for a neutral candidate.
Zuma supporters remain convinced that nothing will stop him from being the next ANC president if he wins the two cases.
A new twist to the contest was added last week when ANC secretary general Kgalema Motlanthe said he was being targeted after the public protector found there were no irregularities in a R800-million loan to Pamodzi by the Land Bank. Motlanthe was a shareholder in the company.
Motlanthe, seen as a compromise candidate for the presidency, did not specify why he was being targeted or by whom.
His comments dovetail with the “hoax” e-mails distributed last year, in which senior ANC members allegedly discussed a plot to destroy Motlanthe’s political credibility.
The status of the e-mails has not been established.
Mbeki has undoubtedly been strengthened by leading the ANC to its highest victory margins in the 2004 national elections and the local elections this year, despite presiding over a divided party.
The local election victory banished the humiliating memory of last year’s national general council, marked by an unexpected rebellion against Mbeki in favour of Zuma, who had resigned as deputy president of the party.
Zuma, by contrast, appears to have been hurt by the rape trial. The crowds outside the court are significantly smaller than the 10 000-strong rally at his first court appearance in Durban last year.
The crowd then included the most senior ANC, South African Communist Party and Congress of South African Trade Unions leaders, who have been notably absent from his rape hearing.
This week supporters were bussed in from KwaZulu-Natal. The trust funding his defence appears to have dried up as private sector enthusiasm for his cause has weakened.
But close Zuma supporters say Mbeki’s hand is not necessarily strengthened by Zuma’s worsening lot.
“The more Zuma gets damaged, the more Mbeki gets damaged in the eyes of the cadres. The more things happen to Zuma, the more Mbeki gets blamed. For some, the rape trial is part of a conspiracy,” said an ANC national executive committee (NEC) member. “And if he wins it, it will be easier to handle the more political corruption trial.
“Mbeki nearly split the alliance with his divisive style. He must not risk being defeated and humiliated in the ANC while he is president of the country,” said the NEC member.
Another close Zuma supporter said; “The president has admitted [to The Sunday Independent] to writing a Âletter [to Parliament’s standing committee on public accounts], attributed to Zuma, and which was used partly to convict Schabir Shaik. The letter was quoted several times in the judgement. Why is Mbeki only admitting this now, after Shaik has been convicted and Zuma charged? Why did he not defend Zuma?”
But Zuma will need a massive support base, as the ANC national working committee has taken an increasingly harsh stance on his rape charges and those supporting him outside the court.
On Tuesday the committee reaffirmed its “resolute determination” to end rape and gender-based violence. “Therefore, no ANC structure or member should act or express themselves in a manner that undermines this unwavering principled commitment.”
The Cabinet expressed its disapproval of the conduct of his supporters outside the court, while ANC Women’s League president Nosiviwe Mapisa-Nqakula has also described the crowd’s behaviour as despicable.